Closing spread
ARI -2.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play-0.046
- 38.8%Success rate40.8%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.207EPA / rush-0.278
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.7%
- -4.25CPOE+0.41
- 35.7%Third-down rate38.4%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 1.20Points / drive1.78
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 10–8–1 since 1999
DET have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. DET are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 27/48 | 268 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 11 | 23 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 1 |
| John Brown | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 13 | 74 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 6 | 9 | 67 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 5 | 6 | 43 | 1 |
| Andre Ellington | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| John Brown | 4 | 9 | 32 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Troy Niklas | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 29/41 | 292 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 15 | 30 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 10 | 12 | 107 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 4 | 7 | 69 | 2 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 2 | 37 | 1 |
| T.J. Jones | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 6 | 7 | 27 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.85