2018 · Week 14

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

17·3

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Josh Rosen

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

DET -2.5

Total

40

Model margin

-1.6est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.022EPA / play-0.240
  • 41.5%Success rate35.6%
  • +0.027EPA / dropback-0.267
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.193
  • 7.7%Explosive rate6.0%
  • -2.79CPOE-7.13
  • 36.1%Third-down rate29.0%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
  • 1.75Points / drive0.92
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 10–9–1 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. ARI are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DET @ ARI45–21DET
2024 · W3DET @ ARI20–13DET
2021 · W15ARI @ DET12–30DET
2020 · W3DET @ ARI26–23DET
2019 · W1DET @ ARI27–27Tie
2017 · W1ARI @ DET23–35DET
2015 · W5ARI @ DET42–17ARI
2014 · W11DET @ ARI6–14ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–ARI
DETQ1 15:00743Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 12:033-6Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:3237Punt0–0
ARIQ1 8:29412Punt0–0
DETQ1 6:2443Punt0–0
ARIQ1 4:21523Punt0–0
DETQ1 2:311365Field goal3–0
ARIQ2 9:35927Missed field goal3–0
DETQ2 5:174-5Punt3–0
ARIQ2 4:0056Punt3–0
DETQ2 1:48531Punt3–0
ARIQ2 0:30211End of half3–0
ARIQ3 15:00619Punt3–0
DETQ3 11:32626Punt3–0
ARIQ3 7:45842Opp touchdown10–0
ARIQ3 3:03419Punt10–0
DETQ3 0:526-4Punt10–0
ARIQ4 13:311064Field goal10–3
DETQ4 8:14842Touchdown17–3
ARIQ4 4:05921Turnover on downs17–3
DETQ4 1:53410Punt17–3
ARIQ4 1:28541End of half17–3

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford15/2310100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Zenner12544.51
LeGarrette Blount12332.80
Theo Riddick6284.70
Matthew Stafford177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Theo Riddick44300
Levine Toilolo22260
LeGarrette Blount23180
Bruce Ellington44170
Andy Jones1250
Kenny Golladay2450
T.J. Jones0100
Michael Roberts0200

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Rosen26/4124001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson15493.30
Chase Edmonds3144.70
Josh Rosen231.50
J.J. Nelson1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trent Sherfield57770
Larry Fitzgerald59550
J.J. Nelson37430
Ricky Seals-Jones35310
Jalen Tolliver22220
David Johnson810120
Jermaine Gresham0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.7%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.64