Closing spread
DET -2.5
Total
40
Model margin
-1.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.022EPA / play-0.240
- 41.5%Success rate35.6%
- +0.027EPA / dropback-0.267
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.193
- 7.7%Explosive rate6.0%
- -2.79CPOE-7.13
- 36.1%Third-down rate29.0%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.75Points / drive0.92
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 10–8–1 since 1999
DET have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 15/23 | 101 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Zenner | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 1 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Riddick | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Andy Jones | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Roberts | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Rosen | 26/41 | 240 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 15 | 49 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Josh Rosen | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Sherfield | 5 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 3 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolliver | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 8 | 10 | 12 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.7%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.38
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.64