2020 · Week 3

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

26·23

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -4.5

Total

55.5

Model margin

+4.9est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.051
  • 45.5%Success rate46.0%
  • +0.103EPA / dropback+0.087
  • -0.156EPA / rush-0.009
  • 8.4%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -1.27CPOE+2.07
  • 41.6%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 63.0%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
  • 2.14Points / drive2.19
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 10–9–1 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. ARI are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DET @ ARI45–21DET
2024 · W3DET @ ARI20–13DET
2021 · W15ARI @ DET12–30DET
2019 · W1DET @ ARI27–27Tie
2018 · W14DET @ ARI17–3DET
2017 · W1ARI @ DET23–35DET
2015 · W5ARI @ DET42–17ARI
2014 · W11DET @ ARI6–14ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–ARI
DETQ1 15:001156Field goal3–0
ARIQ1 8:27842Turnover3–0
DETQ1 5:284-2Punt3–0
ARIQ1 4:221074Touchdown3–7
DETQ1 0:14618Punt3–7
ARIQ2 11:18410Turnover3–7
DETQ2 9:37627Touchdown10–7
ARIQ2 6:15974Touchdown10–13
DETQ2 1:53675Touchdown17–13
ARIQ2 0:31210End of half17–13
ARIQ3 15:00644Field goal17–16
DETQ3 11:1931Punt17–16
ARIQ3 9:42719Turnover17–16
DETQ3 7:36516Field goal20–16
ARIQ3 5:271175Touchdown20–23
DETQ3 0:35750Punt20–23
ARIQ4 11:5832Punt20–23
DETQ4 11:03714Field goal23–23
ARIQ4 6:44527Punt23–23
DETQ4 4:491167Field goal26–23

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford22/3127020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson22753.40
Kerryon Johnson3165.30
Jamal Agnew122.00
Matthew Stafford1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Golladay67571
T.J. Hockenson47530
Marvin Jones33510
Jesse James34281
Jamal Agnew22200
D'Andre Swift12190
Danny Amendola14180
Kerryon Johnson11140
Adrian Peterson11100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray23/3527023

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake18734.10
Kyler Murray5295.81
Chase Edmonds3134.30
Andy Isabella1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins10121370
Andy Isabella44472
Darrell Daniels22240
KeeSean Johnson27240
Chase Edmonds22210
Dan Arnold12110
Kenyan Drake1160
Larry Fitzgerald1300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.1%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.19
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.90