Closing spread
ARI -4.5
Total
55.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.051
- 45.5%Success rate46.0%
- +0.103EPA / dropback+0.087
- -0.156EPA / rush-0.009
- 8.4%Explosive rate9.3%
- -1.27CPOE+2.07
- 41.6%Third-down rate40.2%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
- 2.14Points / drive2.19
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 10–8–1 since 1999
DET have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/31 | 270 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 22 | 75 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 6 | 7 | 57 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 3 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
| Jamal Agnew | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 23/35 | 270 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 18 | 73 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Andy Isabella | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 10 | 12 | 137 | 0 |
| Andy Isabella | 4 | 4 | 47 | 2 |
| Darrell Daniels | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| KeeSean Johnson | 2 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.19
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.90