2019 · Week 1

Final / OT

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

27·27

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

DET -2.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.039EPA / play+0.014
  • 41.5%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.049EPA / dropback+0.020
  • -0.193EPA / rush+0.004
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -3.54CPOE-1.81
  • 41.4%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 1.73Points / drive1.85
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 10–9–1 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. ARI are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DET @ ARI45–21DET
2024 · W3DET @ ARI20–13DET
2021 · W15ARI @ DET12–30DET
2020 · W3DET @ ARI26–23DET
2018 · W14DET @ ARI17–3DET
2017 · W1ARI @ DET23–35DET
2015 · W5ARI @ DET42–17ARI
2014 · W11DET @ ARI6–14ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–ARI
DETQ1 15:00524Punt0–0
ARIQ1 12:00410Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:19432Punt0–0
ARIQ1 8:5064Turnover0–0
DETQ1 6:511-10Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 6:3939Punt0–0
DETQ1 4:45943Field goal3–0
ARIQ2 14:0732Punt3–0
DETQ2 13:10251Touchdown10–0
ARIQ2 12:23411Punt10–0
DETQ2 9:471085Touchdown17–0
ARIQ2 3:38611Punt17–0
ARIQ2 1:4036Field goal17–3
DETQ2 1:19717Punt17–3
ARIQ2 0:1515End of half17–3
ARIQ3 15:003-3Punt17–3
DETQ3 13:27413Punt17–3
ARIQ3 10:4433Punt17–3
DETQ3 9:48414Punt17–3
ARIQ3 7:12742Field goal17–6
DETQ3 4:381087Touchdown24–6
ARIQ4 14:471068Field goal24–9
DETQ4 11:0937Punt24–9
ARIQ4 8:52970Touchdown24–16
DETQ4 5:57832Punt24–16
ARIQ4 2:311055Touchdown24–24
DETQ4 0:43312Punt24–24
ARIOT665Field goal24–27
DETOT760Field goal27–27
ARIOT929Punt27–27
DETOT510Turnover on downs27–27

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford27/4538530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kerryon Johnson16493.10
C.J. Anderson11353.20
Matthew Stafford3227.30
Ty Johnson166.00
Marvin Jones144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Hockenson691311
Danny Amendola7131041
Marvin Jones44560
Kenny Golladay49421
J.D. McKissic22240
Jesse James11150
Kerryon Johnson22130
Nick Bawden1100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray29/5430821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson18824.60
Kyler Murray3134.30
Christian Kirk11212.00
Chase Edmonds155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald8131131
David Johnson67551
KeeSean Johnson510460
Damiere Byrd47420
Christian Kirk412320
Maxx Williams11150
Charles Clay1150
Chase Edmonds0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.8%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.90