Closing spread
DET -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.039EPA / play+0.014
- 41.5%Success rate42.7%
- +0.049EPA / dropback+0.020
- -0.193EPA / rush+0.004
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.9%
- -3.54CPOE-1.81
- 41.4%Third-down rate36.0%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.73Points / drive1.85
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 10–8–1 since 1999
DET have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 27/45 | 385 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerryon Johnson | 16 | 49 | 3.1 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 6 | 9 | 131 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 7 | 13 | 104 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 4 | 9 | 42 | 1 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Nick Bawden | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 29/54 | 308 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 18 | 82 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8 | 13 | 113 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 6 | 7 | 55 | 1 |
| KeeSean Johnson | 5 | 10 | 46 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 4 | 12 | 32 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.16
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.90