1999 · Week 10

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

13·27

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Jason Garrett

Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 86°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

38

Model margin

+0.8est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.016EPA / play-0.013
  • 40.8%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback+0.043
  • -0.154EPA / rush-0.079
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.3%
  • 36.6%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 54.0%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.25
  • 3.3%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.019EPA / play allowed-0.080

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–4–1 since 1999

Meetings average 54.6 points. DAL are 6-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6DAL @ GB13–23GB
2025 · W4GB @ DAL40–40Tie
2023 · playoffsGB @ DAL48–32GB
2022 · W10DAL @ GB28–31GB
2019 · W5GB @ DAL34–24GB
2017 · W5GB @ DAL35–31GB
2016 · playoffsGB @ DAL34–31GB
2016 · W6DAL @ GB30–16DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DAL
GBQ1 15:0043Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:451165Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 7:5736Punt0–7
DALQ1 5:431560Missed field goal0–7
GBQ2 13:3530Punt0–7
DALQ2 12:5230Punt0–7
GBQ2 11:481247Turnover0–7
DALQ2 7:183-1Punt0–7
GBQ2 5:50523Punt0–7
DALQ2 3:0925Turnover0–7
GBQ2 2:3034Field goal3–7
DALQ2 1:07554Field goal3–10
DALQ3 15:001064Turnover3–10
GBQ3 8:58411Punt3–10
DALQ3 6:57368Touchdown3–17
GBQ3 5:281253Missed field goal3–17
DALQ3 0:0036Punt3–17
GBQ4 13:1631Punt3–17
DALQ4 12:3339Field goal3–20
GBQ4 10:401158Touchdown10–20
DALQ4 6:5339Punt10–20
GBQ4 4:411241Field goal13–20
GBQ4 1:2100Field goal13–20
DALQ4 1:2100Opp touchdown13–20
GBQ4 1:21637Opp touchdown13–27
DALQ4 0:0400Opp touchdown13–27
GBQ4 0:0400End of half13–27

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre26/5026012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dorsey Levens15312.10
Brett Favre294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Freeman6101101
Bill Schroeder47610
Dorsey Levens811400
Corey Bradford311350
Tyrone Davis3590
Donald Driver0100
Jeff Thomason0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Garrett13/2319920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Warren19854.50
Robert Chancey14574.10
Raghib Ismail177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Raghib Ismail610861
Ernie Mills25490
Eric Bjornson12320
David LaFleur22161
Jason Tucker11110
Chris Warren1250
Jeff Ogden0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.1%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.45
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.17
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.76