Closing spread
GB -3
Total
38
Model margin
+0.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play-0.013
- 40.8%Success rate39.6%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.043
- -0.154EPA / rush-0.079
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.3%
- 36.6%Third-down rate34.8%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 1.48Points / drive1.25
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.019EPA / play allowed-0.080
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4–1 since 1999
Meetings average 55.8 points. DAL are 6-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 26/50 | 260 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 15 | 31 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 6 | 10 | 110 | 1 |
| Bill Schroeder | 4 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 8 | 11 | 40 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 3 | 11 | 35 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Garrett | 13/23 | 199 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Warren | 19 | 85 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Robert Chancey | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghib Ismail | 6 | 10 | 86 | 1 |
| Ernie Mills | 2 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Eric Bjornson | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| David LaFleur | 2 | 2 | 16 | 1 |
| Jason Tucker | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jeff Ogden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.17
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.76