2026 · Week 6

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

13·23

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

Lambeau Field · outdoors

Closing spread

DAL -1.5

Total

53.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapPackers
  • +0.142EPA / play+0.010
  • 48.8%Success rate40.0%
  • +0.203EPA / dropback+0.142
  • +0.017EPA / rush-0.266
  • 6.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +1.17CPOE-1.28
  • 48.7%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 76.8%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 2.97Points / drive1.96
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–4–1 since 1999

Meetings average 54.6 points. GB are 11-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4GB @ DAL40–40Tie
2023 · playoffsGB @ DAL48–32GB
2022 · W10DAL @ GB28–31GB
2019 · W5GB @ DAL34–24GB
2017 · W5GB @ DAL35–31GB
2016 · playoffsGB @ DAL34–31GB
2016 · W6DAL @ GB30–16DAL
2015 · W14DAL @ GB7–28GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–GB
DALQ1 15:00619Punt0–0
GBQ1 11:1315105Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 4:4348Punt0–7
GBQ1 2:362-2Turnover0–7
DALQ1 1:50625Turnover0–7
GBQ2 14:151583Field goal0–10
DALQ2 5:58849Turnover0–10
GBQ2 1:501139Touchdown0–17
DALQ2 0:2316End of half0–17
GBQ3 15:0043Punt0–17
DALQ3 13:51946Touchdown7–17
GBQ3 9:191042Field goal7–20
DALQ3 5:02414Punt7–20
GBQ3 3:293-2Punt7–20
DALQ3 1:11822Turnover on downs7–20
GBQ4 13:30838Field goal7–23
DALQ4 10:061843Turnover on downs7–23
GBQ4 5:00514Punt7–23
DALQ4 3:011371Touchdown13–23
GBQ4 0:4400End of half13–23

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott34/5425812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams11413.71
Dak Prescott273.50
Tyler Goodson200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens611730
CeeDee Lamb918700
Ryan Flournoy79401
Brevyn Spann-Ford45350
Jake Ferguson23130
Javonte Williams2290
Tyler Goodson1390
Hunter Luepke3390

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love23/4127611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Strong11282.50
Jordan Love4123.01
MarShawn Lloyd8101.30
Savion Williams294.50
Kaleb Johnson1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matthew Golden6131041
Christian Watson38640
Pierre Strong56390
Tucker Kraft58370
Savion Williams44320
MarShawn Lloyd0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.01