Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
-2.0est.
GB perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Cowboysedge mapPackers
- +0.271EPA / play-0.181
- 48.3%Success rate38.2%
- +0.425EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.438
- 0.0%Explosive rate13.2%
- +7.73CPOE-9.65
- 72.7%Third-down rate25.0%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 2.98Points / drive1.91
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4–1 since 1999
Meetings average 55.8 points. GB are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.01
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-2.03