Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.031EPA / play+0.017
- 45.2%Success rate46.2%
- +0.082EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.031EPA / rush-0.009
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.7%
- -1.95CPOE+0.52
- 46.2%Third-down rate39.3%
- 71.3%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 2.26Points / drive1.91
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4–1 since 1999
Meetings average 55.8 points. GB are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 27/46 | 265 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 22 | 115 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Malik Davis | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 11 | 15 | 150 | 2 |
| Dalton Schultz | 6 | 8 | 54 | 1 |
| Michael Gallup | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Sean McKeon | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 14/20 | 224 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 24 | 138 | 5.8 | 1 |
| AJ Dillon | 13 | 65 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 4 | 8 | 107 | 3 |
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.37
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.22