2022 · Week 10

Final / OT

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

28·31

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapPackers
  • +0.031EPA / play+0.017
  • 45.2%Success rate46.2%
  • +0.082EPA / dropback+0.035
  • -0.031EPA / rush-0.009
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -1.95CPOE+0.52
  • 46.2%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 71.3%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 2.26Points / drive1.91
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–4–1 since 1999

Meetings average 54.6 points. GB are 11-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6DAL @ GB13–23GB
2025 · W4GB @ DAL40–40Tie
2023 · playoffsGB @ DAL48–32GB
2019 · W5GB @ DAL34–24GB
2017 · W5GB @ DAL35–31GB
2016 · playoffsGB @ DAL34–31GB
2016 · W6DAL @ GB30–16DAL
2015 · W14DAL @ GB7–28GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–GB
DALQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
GBQ1 14:15933Missed field goal0–0
DALQ1 9:2834Punt0–0
GBQ1 8:31740Punt0–0
DALQ1 3:131988Touchdown7–0
GBQ2 9:5230Turnover7–0
DALQ2 8:153-1Turnover7–0
GBQ2 6:57467Touchdown7–7
DALQ2 4:54912Turnover7–7
GBQ2 2:20419Touchdown7–14
DALQ2 1:42866Touchdown14–14
GBQ2 0:0800End of half14–14
GBQ3 15:00738Punt14–14
DALQ3 10:3937Punt14–14
DALQ3 8:29445Touchdown21–14
GBQ3 7:143-3Punt21–14
DALQ3 5:34797Touchdown28–14
GBQ3 2:47976Touchdown28–21
DALQ4 13:23825Punt28–21
GBQ4 8:571089Touchdown28–28
DALQ4 2:2933Punt28–28
GBQ4 1:3839Punt28–28
DALQ4 0:16319End of half28–28
DALOT1055Turnover on downs28–28
GBOT450Field goal28–31

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott27/4626532

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard221155.21
Malik Davis5387.60
Dak Prescott461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb11151502
Dalton Schultz68541
Michael Gallup47350
Tony Pollard36130
KaVontae Turpin1190
Noah Brown1430
Sean McKeon1210
Peyton Hendershot0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers14/2022430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones241385.81
AJ Dillon13655.00
Aaron Rodgers242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Watson481073
Sammy Watkins33470
Allen Lazard34450
Aaron Jones22180
Robert Tonyan1180
Marcedes Lewis11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.5%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-0.22