Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
52.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.075EPA / play+0.121
- 45.1%Success rate48.0%
- +0.155EPA / dropback+0.229
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.061
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.9%
- +1.07CPOE+3.68
- 47.4%Third-down rate49.6%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 2.16Points / drive2.67
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4–1 since 1999
Meetings average 55.8 points. DAL are 6-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 16/21 | 272 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 21 | 118 | 5.6 | 3 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 6 | 6 | 151 | 1 |
| Luke Musgrave | 3 | 3 | 52 | 1 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2 | 2 | 25 | 1 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 41/60 | 403 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 9 | 17 | 110 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 6 | 6 | 103 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 10 | 12 | 93 | 3 |
| Brandin Cooks | 6 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 7 | 9 | 29 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.58
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.29