2023 · WC

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

48·32

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -7

Total

52.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapCowboys
  • +0.075EPA / play+0.121
  • 45.1%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback+0.229
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.061
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +1.07CPOE+3.68
  • 47.4%Third-down rate49.6%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 2.16Points / drive2.67
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–4–1 since 1999

Meetings average 54.6 points. DAL are 6-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6DAL @ GB13–23GB
2025 · W4GB @ DAL40–40Tie
2022 · W10DAL @ GB28–31GB
2019 · W5GB @ DAL34–24GB
2017 · W5GB @ DAL35–31GB
2016 · playoffsGB @ DAL34–31GB
2016 · W6DAL @ GB30–16DAL
2015 · W14DAL @ GB7–28GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DAL
GBQ1 15:001367Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 7:08627Punt7–0
GBQ1 3:55628Punt7–0
DALQ1 1:2635Turnover7–0
GBQ1 0:43429Touchdown14–0
DALQ2 14:15944Punt14–0
GBQ2 9:071093Touchdown20–0
DALQ2 3:23635Opp touchdown27–0
DALQ2 1:501240Touchdown27–7
DALQ3 15:001245Field goal27–10
GBQ3 9:23575Touchdown34–10
DALQ3 6:381482Touchdown34–16
GBQ3 3:03375Touchdown41–16
DALQ3 1:27516Turnover on downs41–16
GBQ4 15:00840Touchdown48–16
DALQ4 10:231175Touchdown48–24
GBQ4 5:5436Punt48–24
DALQ4 4:49476Touchdown48–32
GBQ4 3:2533Punt48–32
DALQ4 2:221165Turnover on downs48–32
GBQ4 0:1600End of half48–32

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love16/2127230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones211185.63
Emanuel Wilson8202.50
Patrick Taylor362.00
Jordan Love1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Romeo Doubs661511
Luke Musgrave33521
Dontayvion Wicks22251
Tucker Kraft23150
Aaron Jones11130
Christian Watson1190
Bo Melton1270
Jayden Reed0300

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott41/6040332

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard15563.71
Dak Prescott6457.50
Rico Dowdle2115.50
Brandin Cooks166.00
CeeDee Lamb155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb9171100
Michael Gallup661030
Jake Ferguson1012933
Brandin Cooks68470
Tony Pollard79290
Rico Dowdle23140
Luke Schoonmaker1170
Jalen Tolbert0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

4.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.29