Closing spread
GB -7
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.122EPA / play+0.109
- 48.0%Success rate47.2%
- +0.274EPA / dropback+0.177
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.007
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- +5.62CPOE+1.89
- 48.8%Third-down rate41.3%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
- 2.39Points / drive2.53
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4–1 since 1999
Meetings average 55.8 points. DAL are 6-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 31/43 | 337 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 22 | 86 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Matthew Golden | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Savion Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 4 | 4 | 71 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 6 | 8 | 58 | 3 |
| Matthew Golden | 5 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 5 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Savion Williams | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Malik Heath | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 31/40 | 319 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 20 | 85 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 8 | 11 | 134 | 2 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 7 | 7 | 40 | 1 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.76
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.94