2025 · Week 4

Final / OT

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

40·40

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

GB -7

Total

47.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

4.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapCowboys
  • +0.122EPA / play+0.109
  • 48.0%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.274EPA / dropback+0.177
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.007
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +5.62CPOE+1.89
  • 48.8%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
  • 2.39Points / drive2.53
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–4–1 since 1999

Meetings average 54.6 points. DAL are 6-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6DAL @ GB13–23GB
2023 · playoffsGB @ DAL48–32GB
2022 · W10DAL @ GB28–31GB
2019 · W5GB @ DAL34–24GB
2017 · W5GB @ DAL35–31GB
2016 · playoffsGB @ DAL34–31GB
2016 · W6DAL @ GB30–16DAL
2015 · W14DAL @ GB7–28GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DAL
GBQ1 15:00873Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 10:0236Punt7–0
GBQ1 8:00746Punt7–0
DALQ1 4:14520Punt7–0
GBQ1 1:181173Touchdown13–2
DALQ2 10:3749Punt13–2
GBQ2 8:3350Punt13–2
DALQ2 5:501295Touchdown13–9
GBQ2 0:4140Turnover13–15
DALQ2 0:13115Touchdown13–16
GBQ2 0:0900End of half13–16
DALQ3 15:00514Punt13–16
GBQ3 12:331065Touchdown20–16
DALQ3 7:081285Touchdown20–23
GBQ3 0:34865Touchdown27–23
DALQ4 11:391462Touchdown27–30
GBQ4 4:501165Touchdown34–30
DALQ4 1:45454Touchdown34–37
GBQ4 0:43639Field goal37–37
DALOT976Field goal37–40
GBOT1264Field goal40–40

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love31/4333730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs22863.92
Emanuel Wilson8445.50
Jordan Love3289.30
Matthew Golden155.00
Savion Williams111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Jacobs44710
Romeo Doubs68583
Matthew Golden56580
Tucker Kraft55560
Emanuel Wilson33370
Savion Williams33220
Dontayvion Wicks24190
Malik Heath1190
Luke Musgrave1160
Chris Brooks1110

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott31/4031930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams20854.31
Ryan Flournoy11212.00
Miles Sanders284.00
Hunter Luepke166.00
KaVontae Turpin144.00
Dak Prescott122.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens8111342
Jalen Tolbert46610
Jake Ferguson77401
KaVontae Turpin34300
Miles Sanders22170
Javonte Williams33150
Ryan Flournoy22140
Luke Schoonmaker2280
Hunter Luepke0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -74.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

4.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.94