Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play+0.111
- 43.9%Success rate48.7%
- +0.124EPA / dropback+0.192
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.017
- 8.5%Explosive rate11.1%
- +0.96CPOE+1.10
- 37.9%Third-down rate47.2%
- 69.9%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
- 2.12Points / drive2.45
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4–1 since 1999
Meetings average 55.8 points. DAL are 6-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/34 | 238 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 19 | 107 | 5.6 | 4 |
| Tra Carson | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 7 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 2 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Tra Carson | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jake Kumerow | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Danny Vitale | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 27/44 | 463 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 12 | 62 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 11 | 14 | 226 | 1 |
| Michael Gallup | 7 | 14 | 113 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.04
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.54