2019 · Week 5

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

34·24

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapCowboys
  • +0.059EPA / play+0.111
  • 43.9%Success rate48.7%
  • +0.124EPA / dropback+0.192
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.017
  • 8.5%Explosive rate11.1%
  • +0.96CPOE+1.10
  • 37.9%Third-down rate47.2%
  • 69.9%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
  • 2.12Points / drive2.45
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–4–1 since 1999

Meetings average 54.6 points. DAL are 6-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6DAL @ GB13–23GB
2025 · W4GB @ DAL40–40Tie
2023 · playoffsGB @ DAL48–32GB
2022 · W10DAL @ GB28–31GB
2017 · W5GB @ DAL35–31GB
2016 · playoffsGB @ DAL34–31GB
2016 · W6DAL @ GB30–16DAL
2015 · W14DAL @ GB7–28GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DAL
GBQ1 15:00416Punt0–0
DALQ1 12:31437Turnover0–0
GBQ1 10:26547Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 8:57751Punt7–0
GBQ1 5:23989Touchdown14–0
DALQ1 0:03650Turnover14–0
GBQ2 12:3644Punt14–0
DALQ2 11:10516Punt14–0
GBQ2 8:221264Field goal17–0
DALQ2 2:19840Missed field goal17–0
GBQ2 0:403-2Punt17–0
DALQ2 0:13321End of half17–0
DALQ3 15:00416Punt17–0
GBQ3 13:26853Touchdown24–0
DALQ3 9:331057Field goal24–3
GBQ3 5:54540Touchdown31–3
DALQ3 3:30675Touchdown31–10
GBQ3 2:00410Punt31–10
DALQ3 0:19682Touchdown31–17
GBQ4 13:5260Punt31–17
DALQ4 10:2910Turnover31–17
GBQ4 10:2139Field goal34–17
DALQ4 8:07260Touchdown34–24
GBQ4 7:4669Punt34–24
DALQ4 3:33958Missed field goal34–24
GBQ4 1:4100End of half34–24

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers22/3423800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones191075.64
Tra Carson6142.30
Aaron Rodgers4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Aaron Jones78750
Jimmy Graham33410
Geronimo Allison26280
Robert Tonyan11230
Tra Carson44180
Marquez Valdes-Scantling14180
Marcedes Lewis22170
Jake Kumerow1290
Danny Vitale1190

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott27/4446323

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott12625.21
Dak Prescott4276.80
Tony Pollard4194.80
Tavon Austin11414.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper11142261
Michael Gallup7141131
Randall Cobb36530
Jason Witten34290
Ezekiel Elliott23290
Tavon Austin11130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.2%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.54