Closing spread
GB -5
Total
47
Model margin
+2.2est.
GB perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.126EPA / play+0.127
- 48.6%Success rate45.9%
- +0.226EPA / dropback+0.243
- +0.006EPA / rush-0.138
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.9%
- +4.07CPOE+2.71
- 43.8%Third-down rate47.4%
- 70.2%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 2.52Points / drive2.39
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4–1 since 1999
Meetings average 55.8 points. GB are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 18/27 | 247 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 28 | 157 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 1 | 26 | 26.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Williams | 4 | 5 | 75 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 6 | 6 | 58 | 2 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 1 | 1 | 35 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 1 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 31/42 | 294 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 17 | 65 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Montgomery | 10 | 12 | 98 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 5 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 7 | 11 | 53 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jeff Janis | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Justin Perillo | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jared Abbrederis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.47
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.21