2016 · Week 6

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

30·16

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

GB -5

Total

47

Model margin

+2.2est.

GB perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapPackers
  • +0.126EPA / play+0.127
  • 48.6%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.226EPA / dropback+0.243
  • +0.006EPA / rush-0.138
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +4.07CPOE+2.71
  • 43.8%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 70.2%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 2.52Points / drive2.39
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–4–1 since 1999

Meetings average 54.6 points. GB are 11-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6DAL @ GB13–23GB
2025 · W4GB @ DAL40–40Tie
2023 · playoffsGB @ DAL48–32GB
2022 · W10DAL @ GB28–31GB
2019 · W5GB @ DAL34–24GB
2017 · W5GB @ DAL35–31GB
2016 · playoffsGB @ DAL34–31GB
2015 · W14DAL @ GB7–28GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–GB
DALQ1 15:00869Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 10:03946Field goal7–3
DALQ1 5:11419Punt7–3
GBQ1 3:04118Turnover7–3
DALQ1 2:54412Turnover7–3
GBQ1 1:24930Field goal7–6
DALQ2 12:161248Field goal10–6
GBQ2 6:01732Turnover on downs10–6
DALQ2 2:0930Punt10–6
GBQ2 1:3940Punt10–6
DALQ2 1:00597Touchdown17–6
GBQ2 0:27561End of half17–6
GBQ3 15:00829Turnover17–6
DALQ3 10:03647Field goal20–6
GBQ3 6:581271Turnover20–6
DALQ3 1:1032Turnover20–6
GBQ3 0:2030Field goal20–9
DALQ4 14:48870Touchdown27–9
GBQ4 10:26975Touchdown27–16
DALQ4 6:53748Field goal30–16
GBQ4 3:41310Turnover30–16
DALQ4 2:29412End of half30–16

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott18/2724731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott281575.60
Lucky Whitehead12626.00
Dak Prescott166.00
Alfred Morris320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrance Williams45750
Cole Beasley66582
Jason Witten48420
Lucky Whitehead11350
Brice Butler13201
Ezekiel Elliott24170

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers31/4229411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy17653.80
Aaron Rodgers372.30
Ty Montgomery362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ty Montgomery1012980
Jordy Nelson57680
Randall Cobb711531
Davante Adams23340
Richard Rodgers23150
Jeff Janis22140
Eddie Lacy1160
Justin Perillo1140
Jared Abbrederis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.0%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.21