2016 · DIV

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

34·31

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -5.5

Total

52.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapCowboys
  • +0.127EPA / play+0.126
  • 45.9%Success rate48.6%
  • +0.243EPA / dropback+0.226
  • -0.138EPA / rush+0.006
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +2.71CPOE+4.07
  • 47.4%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
  • 2.39Points / drive2.52
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–4–1 since 1999

Meetings average 54.6 points. DAL are 6-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6DAL @ GB13–23GB
2025 · W4GB @ DAL40–40Tie
2023 · playoffsGB @ DAL48–32GB
2022 · W10DAL @ GB28–31GB
2019 · W5GB @ DAL34–24GB
2017 · W5GB @ DAL35–31GB
2016 · W6DAL @ GB30–16DAL
2015 · W14DAL @ GB7–28GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DAL
DALQ1 15:00743Field goal0–3
GBQ1 11:23670Touchdown7–3
DALQ1 8:58933Punt7–3
GBQ1 4:521390Touchdown14–3
DALQ2 14:0532Punt14–3
GBQ2 13:011080Touchdown21–3
DALQ2 7:37475Touchdown21–10
GBQ2 6:0331Punt21–10
DALQ2 4:55936Field goal21–13
GBQ2 1:003-9Punt21–13
GBQ3 15:00675Touchdown28–13
DALQ3 11:25861Turnover28–13
GBQ3 7:11823Turnover28–13
DALQ3 2:191069Touchdown28–20
GBQ4 11:39414Punt28–20
DALQ4 9:141268Touchdown28–28
GBQ4 4:08827Field goal31–28
DALQ4 1:33442Field goal31–31
GBQ4 0:35542Field goal34–31

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers28/4335521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ty Montgomery11474.32
Aaron Rodgers2168.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jared Cook6111031
Davante Adams510760
Randall Cobb78620
Geronimo Allison35460
Richard Rodgers12341
Ty Montgomery67340

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott24/3830231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott221255.70
Dak Prescott2136.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant9121322
Terrance Williams46680
Jason Witten69591
Cole Beasley46450
Brice Butler0300
Ezekiel Elliott11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

3.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.83