Closing spread
DAL -5.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.127EPA / play+0.126
- 45.9%Success rate48.6%
- +0.243EPA / dropback+0.226
- -0.138EPA / rush+0.006
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.8%
- +2.71CPOE+4.07
- 47.4%Third-down rate43.8%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
- 2.39Points / drive2.52
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4–1 since 1999
Meetings average 55.8 points. DAL are 6-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 28/43 | 355 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Montgomery | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cook | 6 | 11 | 103 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 5 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 7 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 34 | 1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 6 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 24/38 | 302 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 22 | 125 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 9 | 12 | 132 | 2 |
| Terrance Williams | 4 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 6 | 9 | 59 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.47
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.83