2017 · Week 5

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

35·31

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -2.5

Total

52

Model margin

-2.4est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.023EPA / play+0.008
  • 45.2%Success rate43.8%
  • -0.019EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.032EPA / rush+0.027
  • 6.2%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -1.27CPOE-0.45
  • 39.5%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 1.77Points / drive1.85
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–4–1 since 1999

Meetings average 54.6 points. DAL are 6-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6DAL @ GB13–23GB
2025 · W4GB @ DAL40–40Tie
2023 · playoffsGB @ DAL48–32GB
2022 · W10DAL @ GB28–31GB
2019 · W5GB @ DAL34–24GB
2016 · playoffsGB @ DAL34–31GB
2016 · W6DAL @ GB30–16DAL
2015 · W14DAL @ GB7–28GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DAL
DALQ1 15:001372Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 8:24875Touchdown6–7
DALQ1 4:011175Touchdown6–14
GBQ2 13:373-16Punt6–14
DALQ2 12:061057Touchdown6–21
GBQ2 6:101360Touchdown12–21
DALQ2 0:54519End of half12–21
GBQ3 15:00871Field goal15–21
DALQ3 11:09620Punt15–21
GBQ3 7:371573Touchdown22–21
DALQ4 14:54750Field goal22–24
GBQ4 11:4534Punt22–24
DALQ4 10:3723Opp touchdown28–24
DALQ4 9:561884Touchdown28–31
GBQ4 1:13975Touchdown35–31
DALQ4 0:11228Turnover35–31

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers19/2922130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones191256.61
Aaron Rodgers4328.00
Jamaal Williams111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams711662
Martellus Bennett33530
Randall Cobb45290
Jordy Nelson24241
Lance Kendricks11240
Richard Rodgers11160
Aaron Jones1190
Geronimo Allison0200

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott25/3625131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott291164.00
Dak Prescott4379.31
Alfred Morris2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten810610
Brice Butler22570
Dez Bryant58521
Cole Beasley46232
Rod Smith11180
Ezekiel Elliott12160
Terrance Williams23140
Alfred Morris0100
James Hanna0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.00%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.6%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.40
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-2.41