Closing spread
DAL -2.5
Total
52
Model margin
-2.4est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play+0.008
- 45.2%Success rate43.8%
- -0.019EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.032EPA / rush+0.027
- 6.2%Explosive rate7.8%
- -1.27CPOE-0.45
- 39.5%Third-down rate43.3%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 1.77Points / drive1.85
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4–1 since 1999
Meetings average 55.8 points. DAL are 6-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 19/29 | 221 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 19 | 125 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 11 | 66 | 2 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 2 | 4 | 24 | 1 |
| Lance Kendricks | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 25/36 | 251 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 29 | 116 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 1 |
| Alfred Morris | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 8 | 10 | 61 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 2 | 2 | 57 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 5 | 8 | 52 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 6 | 23 | 2 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.6%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.49
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-5.40
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-2.41