1999 · Week 10
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
34.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play-0.149
- 38.7%Success rate35.1%
- +0.046EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.193
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.7%
- 39.1%Third-down rate35.3%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate37.2%
- 1.01Points / drive1.03
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.134EPA / play allowed-0.164
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 6–3 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 50 points. TB are 7-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 23 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 13:58 | 4 | 27 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| TB | Q1 11:59 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 3–0 |
| KC | Q1 8:59 | 4 | 1 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| TB | Q1 6:58 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| KC | Q1 5:38 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TB | Q1 3:42 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 3–0 |
| KC | Q1 1:11 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TB | Q2 14:16 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 3–0 |
| KC | Q2 11:54 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TB | Q2 9:41 | 2 | 53 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| KC | Q2 8:49 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–7 |
| TB | Q2 7:06 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| KC | Q2 5:41 | 3 | 8 | Missed field goal | 3–7 |
| TB | Q2 4:08 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 3–7 |
| KC | Q2 1:22 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| TB | Q2 0:56 | 2 | 6 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| KC | Q2 0:28 | 1 | 3 | End of half | 3–10 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–10 |
| TB | Q3 13:45 | 11 | 64 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| KC | Q3 7:18 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 3–10 |
| TB | Q3 4:55 | 5 | 73 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| KC | Q3 2:38 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 3–17 |
| TB | Q3 1:45 | 1 | 5 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| KC | Q3 1:39 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 3–17 |
| TB | Q4 14:09 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–17 |
| KC | Q4 11:59 | 3 | 59 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| TB | Q4 10:40 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 10–17 |
| KC | Q4 8:44 | 5 | 30 | Punt | 10–17 |
| TB | Q4 6:35 | 7 | 60 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| KC | Q4 2:47 | 11 | 66 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| TB | Q4 0:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 23/38 | 202 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaan Shehee | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 3 | 8 | 63 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 6 | 11 | 62 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 7 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Rashaan Shehee | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Andre Rison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 17/27 | 270 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 18 | 66 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquez Green | 7 | 9 | 164 | 1 |
| Dave Moore | 3 | 3 | 56 | 1 |
| Reidel Anthony | 3 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Darnell McDonald | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.88