1999 · Week 10
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
34.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play-0.149
- 38.7%Success rate35.1%
- +0.046EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.193
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.7%
- 39.1%Third-down rate35.3%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate37.2%
- 1.01Points / drive1.03
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.134EPA / play allowed-0.164
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 6–3 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 50 points. TB are 7-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 23/38 | 202 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaan Shehee | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 3 | 8 | 63 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 6 | 11 | 62 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 7 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Rashaan Shehee | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Andre Rison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 17/27 | 270 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 18 | 66 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquez Green | 7 | 9 | 164 | 1 |
| Dave Moore | 3 | 3 | 56 | 1 |
| Reidel Anthony | 3 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Darnell McDonald | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.88