2016 · Week 11

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

19·17

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

KC -7

Total

45

Model margin

+2.4est.

KC perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapChiefs
  • -0.005EPA / play+0.012
  • 43.9%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback+0.084
  • -0.208EPA / rush-0.105
  • 6.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +1.81CPOE+2.15
  • 44.2%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 62.7%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
  • 1.74Points / drive1.88
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 6–3 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 50 points. KC are 2-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9TB @ KC24–30KC
2022 · W4KC @ TB41–31KC
2020 · playoffsKC @ TB9–31TB
2020 · W12KC @ TB27–24KC
2012 · W6KC @ TB10–38TB
2008 · W9TB @ KC30–27TB
2004 · W9KC @ TB31–34TB
1999 · W10KC @ TB10–17TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–KC
KCQ1 15:001373Field goal0–3
TBQ1 7:071154Turnover0–3
KCQ1 1:2138Punt0–3
TBQ2 14:13862Field goal3–3
KCQ2 9:4539Punt3–3
TBQ2 8:39963Field goal6–3
KCQ2 4:19680Touchdown6–10
TBQ2 1:131052Field goal9–10
KCQ2 0:0700End of half9–10
TBQ3 15:001151Field goal12–10
KCQ3 10:00734Punt12–10
TBQ3 6:281375Punt12–10
KCQ4 14:51564Turnover12–10
TBQ4 12:08959Touchdown19–10
KCQ4 6:261376Touchdown19–17
TBQ4 2:27626Punt19–17
KCQ4 0:0820Turnover19–17

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston24/3933110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin24632.60
Jameis Winston5224.40
Peyton Barber4225.50
Mike James199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans6131050
Cecil Shorts57620
Russell Shepard34540
Adam Humphries47470
Doug Martin34420
Cameron Brate23180
Alan Cross1131

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith24/3126111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Spencer Ware17694.10
Alex Smith2105.01
Tyreek Hill188.00
Travis Kelce1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce791080
Tyreek Hill45530
Charcandrick West33420
Chris Conley48280
Albert Wilson44191
Spencer Ware22160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

4.72%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.4%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.63
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.37