2016 · Week 11
Final
Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
KC -7
Total
45
Model margin
+2.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.005EPA / play+0.012
- 43.9%Success rate42.7%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.084
- -0.208EPA / rush-0.105
- 6.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- +1.81CPOE+2.15
- 44.2%Third-down rate38.7%
- 62.7%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
- 1.74Points / drive1.88
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 6–3 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 50 points. KC are 2-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 24/39 | 331 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 24 | 63 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Mike James | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 6 | 13 | 105 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 3 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Alan Cross | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 24/31 | 261 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Ware | 17 | 69 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 9 | 108 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 4 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 4 | 4 | 19 | 1 |
| Spencer Ware | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
4.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.63
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.37