2020 · Week 12
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
56
Model margin
+4.2est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.177EPA / play+0.149
- 50.2%Success rate46.9%
- +0.288EPA / dropback+0.239
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.032
- 11.0%Explosive rate9.6%
- +2.60CPOE+3.10
- 49.5%Third-down rate44.2%
- 70.8%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
- 2.85Points / drive2.68
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 6–3 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 50 points. TB are 7-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 37/49 | 462 | 3 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 13 | 15 | 269 | 3 |
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 4 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Deon Yelder | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 27/41 | 345 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones | 9 | 66 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 7 | 106 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 8 | 9 | 97 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 9 | 50 | 2 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 2 | 37 | 1 |
| Cameron Brate | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
6.62%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.58
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.20