2020 · SB

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

9·31

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

KC -3

Total

55

Model margin

+4.3est.

TB perspective

Push chance

6.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.177EPA / play+0.149
  • 50.2%Success rate46.9%
  • +0.288EPA / dropback+0.239
  • -0.056EPA / rush-0.032
  • 11.0%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +2.60CPOE+3.10
  • 49.5%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 70.8%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
  • 2.85Points / drive2.68
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 6–3 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 50 points. TB are 7-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9TB @ KC24–30KC
2022 · W4KC @ TB41–31KC
2020 · W12KC @ TB27–24KC
2016 · W11TB @ KC19–17TB
2012 · W6KC @ TB10–38TB
2008 · W9TB @ KC30–27TB
2004 · W9KC @ TB31–34TB
1999 · W10KC @ TB10–17TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–TB
TBQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:33616Punt0–0
TBQ1 11:2149Punt0–0
KCQ1 8:33826Field goal3–0
TBQ1 5:10970Touchdown3–7
KCQ1 0:3736Punt3–7
TBQ2 14:50954Turnover on downs3–7
KCQ2 10:50416Punt3–7
TBQ2 9:03728Touchdown3–14
KCQ2 6:05961Field goal6–14
TBQ2 1:01729Touchdown6–21
KCQ2 0:0600End of half6–21
KCQ3 15:00647Field goal9–21
TBQ3 11:26674Touchdown9–28
KCQ3 7:453-3Turnover9–28
TBQ3 6:20726Field goal9–31
KCQ3 2:461264Turnover on downs9–31
TBQ4 13:32942Punt9–31
KCQ4 8:061260Turnover on downs9–31
TBQ4 3:5836Punt9–31
KCQ4 3:301058Turnover9–31
TBQ4 1:3300End of half9–31

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes26/4927002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clyde Edwards-Helaire9647.10
Patrick Mahomes5336.60
Tyreek Hill155.00
Darrel Williams252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce10151330
Tyreek Hill710730
Clyde Edwards-Helaire23230
Sammy Watkins11130
Demarcus Robinson12110
Darrel Williams27100
Mecole Hardman2640
Byron Pringle1230

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady21/2920130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette16895.61
Ronald Jones12615.10
Tom Brady4-2-0.50
Scott Miller1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski67672
Leonard Fournette44460
Mike Evans11310
Cameron Brate33260
Antonio Brown56221
Chris Godwin Jr.2490
Tanner Hudson0100
Ronald Jones0100
Tyler Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

6.60%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.5%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.28