2012 · Week 6

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Brady Quinn

10·38

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

TB -5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+7.3est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.132EPA / play+0.018
  • 40.7%Success rate41.0%
  • -0.172EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.038
  • 9.1%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -3.02CPOE-4.01
  • 33.1%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 38.7%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
  • 0.91Points / drive1.74
  • 3.4%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 6–3 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 50 points. TB are 7-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9TB @ KC24–30KC
2022 · W4KC @ TB41–31KC
2020 · playoffsKC @ TB9–31TB
2020 · W12KC @ TB27–24KC
2016 · W11TB @ KC19–17TB
2008 · W9TB @ KC30–27TB
2004 · W9KC @ TB31–34TB
1999 · W10KC @ TB10–17TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–TB
KCQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
TBQ1 13:37514Turnover0–0
KCQ1 11:161148Turnover0–0
TBQ1 5:22417Punt0–0
KCQ1 3:3246Punt0–6
TBQ1 0:30162Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 0:181459Field goal3–7
TBQ2 7:451158Missed field goal3–7
KCQ2 3:07411Punt3–7
TBQ2 0:52318End of half3–7
TBQ3 15:00480Touchdown3–14
KCQ3 12:46852Opp touchdown3–21
KCQ3 9:36428Punt3–21
TBQ3 7:23523Punt3–21
KCQ3 3:41617Punt3–21
TBQ3 0:3934Opp touchdown10–21
TBQ4 14:0100Field goal10–21
TBQ4 13:55669Field goal10–24
KCQ4 10:3410Punt10–24
KCQ4 10:312-1Punt10–24
TBQ4 9:29570Touchdown10–31
KCQ4 6:43833Turnover on downs10–31
TBQ4 4:34553Touchdown10–38
KCQ4 1:5348Turnover on downs10–38
TBQ4 0:2800End of half10–38

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brady Quinn22/3818002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles12403.30
Brady Quinn2115.50
Shaun Draughn11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Maneri45410
Dexter McCluster68390
Dwayne Bowe39250
Jon Baldwin25190
Tony Moeaki12180
Shaun Draughn34120
Jamaal Charles2370

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman15/2632831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin13765.80
LeGarrette Blount7588.31
D.J. Ware166.00
Josh Freeman351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams461131
Tiquan Underwood23680
Vincent Jackson48662
Doug Martin24550
D.J. Ware22100
Dallas Clark0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.0%5.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.2%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.84
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.45
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+7.33