2012 · Week 6
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
TB -5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+7.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.132EPA / play+0.018
- 40.7%Success rate41.0%
- -0.172EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.038
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.8%
- -3.02CPOE-4.01
- 33.1%Third-down rate35.9%
- 38.7%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 0.91Points / drive1.74
- 3.4%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 6–3 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 50 points. TB are 7-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Quinn | 22/38 | 180 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Brady Quinn | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 11 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Maneri | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 6 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 3 | 9 | 25 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 15/26 | 328 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 13 | 76 | 5.8 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 7 | 58 | 8.3 | 1 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 4 | 6 | 113 | 1 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 2 | 3 | 68 | 0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 4 | 8 | 66 | 2 |
| Doug Martin | 2 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.2%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.84
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.45
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+7.33