2004 · Week 9
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
KC -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.174EPA / play-0.072
- 50.4%Success rate42.6%
- +0.235EPA / dropback+0.008
- +0.091EPA / rush-0.203
- 10.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- 47.6%Third-down rate37.9%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 2.37Points / drive1.25
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.6%
- +0.130EPA / play allowed-0.089
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 6–3 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 50 points. TB are 7-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 32/42 | 369 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 16 | 59 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Larry Johnson | 10 | 21 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 4 | 1 | 38 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 22/34 | 296 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 15 | 128 | 8.5 | 3 |
| Brian Griese | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
6.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.88