2024 · Week 9
Final / OT
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
KC -9
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.133EPA / play+0.071
- 49.4%Success rate47.7%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.142
- +0.012EPA / rush-0.058
- 10.2%Explosive rate5.8%
- +3.56CPOE+2.51
- 50.8%Third-down rate48.6%
- 71.2%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 2.71Points / drive2.36
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 6–3 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 50 points. KC are 2-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 23/31 | 200 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Sean Tucker | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Otton | 8 | 11 | 77 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Trey Palmer | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Rakim Jarrett | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ryan Miller | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 34/44 | 291 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 27 | 106 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Carson Steele | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 2 | -10 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 14 | 16 | 100 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 8 | 9 | 86 | 2 |
| Justin Watson | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 5 | 25 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.51