2024 · Week 9

Final / OT

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

24·30

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

KC -9

Total

45.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

KC perspective

Push chance

1.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapChiefs
  • +0.133EPA / play+0.071
  • 49.4%Success rate47.7%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback+0.142
  • +0.012EPA / rush-0.058
  • 10.2%Explosive rate5.8%
  • +3.56CPOE+2.51
  • 50.8%Third-down rate48.6%
  • 71.2%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 2.71Points / drive2.36
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 6–3 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 50 points. KC are 2-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W4KC @ TB41–31KC
2020 · playoffsKC @ TB9–31TB
2020 · W12KC @ TB27–24KC
2016 · W11TB @ KC19–17TB
2012 · W6KC @ TB10–38TB
2008 · W9TB @ KC30–27TB
2004 · W9KC @ TB31–34TB
1999 · W10KC @ TB10–17TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–KC
KCQ1 15:001029Punt0–0
TBQ1 9:16523Punt0–0
KCQ1 6:50733Field goal0–3
TBQ1 2:161270Touchdown7–3
KCQ2 10:231170Touchdown7–10
TBQ2 4:0536Punt7–10
KCQ2 1:47637Turnover7–10
TBQ2 0:55416Punt7–10
KCQ2 0:2536End of half7–10
TBQ3 15:00636Touchdown14–10
KCQ3 11:363-12Punt14–10
TBQ3 10:31850Field goal17–10
KCQ3 5:501370Touchdown17–17
TBQ4 14:1438Punt17–17
KCQ4 12:431673Touchdown17–24
TBQ4 4:173-6Punt17–24
KCQ4 2:393-1Punt17–24
TBQ4 2:161181Touchdown24–24
KCQ4 0:2739Punt24–24
KCOT1070Touchdown24–30

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield23/3120020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving7243.40
Sterling Shepard22110.50
Baker Mayfield4205.00
Rachaad White3196.31
Sean Tucker3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cade Otton811771
Sterling Shepard45480
Trey Palmer24330
Rachaad White33160
Bucky Irving33100
Rakim Jarrett1190
Sean Tucker1160
Ryan Miller1311

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes34/4429130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt271063.91
Samaje Perine11010.00
Patrick Mahomes294.50
Carson Steele393.00
Xavier Worthy2-10-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce14161000
DeAndre Hopkins89862
Justin Watson34430
Samaje Perine45251
Mecole Hardman33170
Kareem Hunt11110
Peyton Hendershot1190
Noah Gray0100
Xavier Worthy0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +93.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.7%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.51