2008 · Week 9
Final / OT
Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
TB -9.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.051
- 43.2%Success rate42.2%
- +0.028EPA / dropback-0.019
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.107
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.7%
- +1.84CPOE-3.09
- 38.9%Third-down rate37.7%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 1.55Points / drive1.48
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 6–3 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 50 points. KC are 2-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 31/43 | 339 | 1 | 1 |
| Earnest Graham | 1/1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 19 | 62 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Clifton Smith | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Thigpen | 14/25 | 164 | 1 | 0 |
| Mark Bradley | 1/1 | 37 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 18 | 106 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Kolby Smith | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Dantrell Savage | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.50
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.98