2022 · Week 4
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
TB -1
Total
46.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.179EPA / play-0.030
- 50.6%Success rate44.0%
- +0.273EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.019EPA / rush-0.208
- 9.3%Explosive rate6.5%
- +3.02CPOE+0.30
- 49.4%Third-down rate38.1%
- 71.2%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 2.71Points / drive1.63
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 6–3 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 50 points. TB are 7-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 23/37 | 249 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 19 | 92 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 11 | 63 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 9 | 10 | 92 | 1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 5 | 63 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 5 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Joseph Fortson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 39/52 | 385 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 8 | 10 | 103 | 2 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 7 | 10 | 59 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 7 | 7 | 57 | 1 |
| Rachaad White | 5 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 4 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Ko Kieft | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.0%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.86
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.15