2022 · Week 4

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

41·31

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

TB -1

Total

46.5

Model margin

-1.1est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.179EPA / play-0.030
  • 50.6%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.273EPA / dropback+0.052
  • -0.019EPA / rush-0.208
  • 9.3%Explosive rate6.5%
  • +3.02CPOE+0.30
  • 49.4%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 71.2%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 2.71Points / drive1.63
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 6–3 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 50 points. TB are 7-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9TB @ KC24–30KC
2020 · playoffsKC @ TB9–31TB
2020 · W12KC @ TB27–24KC
2016 · W11TB @ KC19–17TB
2012 · W6KC @ TB10–38TB
2008 · W9TB @ KC30–27TB
2004 · W9KC @ TB31–34TB
1999 · W10KC @ TB10–17TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–TB
TBQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–0
KCQ1 14:56221Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 14:14645Field goal7–3
KCQ1 10:121279Touchdown14–3
TBQ1 4:0138Punt14–3
KCQ1 2:181386Touchdown21–3
TBQ2 11:26675Touchdown21–10
KCQ2 8:50825Turnover on downs21–10
TBQ2 5:091-12Turnover21–10
KCQ2 5:02620Touchdown28–10
TBQ2 2:111464Touchdown28–17
KCQ2 0:101-11End of half28–17
KCQ3 15:00949Field goal31–17
TBQ3 11:26510Punt31–17
KCQ3 10:31965Touchdown38–17
TBQ3 5:421273Touchdown38–24
KCQ3 0:44846Field goal41–24
TBQ4 10:47727Punt41–24
KCQ4 7:48516Turnover41–24
TBQ4 4:42534Touchdown41–31
KCQ4 3:30721Punt41–31
TBQ4 0:45552End of half41–31

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes23/3724931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clyde Edwards-Helaire19924.81
Isiah Pacheco11635.70
Patrick Mahomes4348.50
Noah Gray111.01
Jerick McKinnon2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce910921
Marquez Valdes-Scantling35630
JuJu Smith-Schuster58460
Skyy Moore24310
Joseph Fortson11101
Mecole Hardman1140
Clyde Edwards-Helaire1221
Jerick McKinnon1110
Justin Watson0100
Noah Gray0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady39/5238530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White362.01
Leonard Fournette3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans8101032
Chris Godwin Jr.710590
Leonard Fournette77571
Rachaad White55500
Cameron Brate48320
Cade Otton34290
Russell Gage24240
Ko Kieft11190
Julio Jones1270
Cole Beasley1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.8%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.0%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.86
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.15