1999 · Week 10 · Division

Final / OT

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Jeff George

27·24

Bears

Chicago

QB Jim Miller

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

MIN -6.5

Total

43

Model margin

+2.7est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBears
  • +0.042EPA / play-0.102
  • 44.6%Success rate38.6%
  • +0.128EPA / dropback-0.043
  • -0.092EPA / rush-0.228
  • 10.9%Explosive rate7.4%
  • 44.4%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate44.0%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.03
  • 3.4%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.008EPA / play allowed-0.001

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:51736Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 9:53177Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 9:43571Touchdown7–7
CHIQ1 6:41589Touchdown7–14
MINQ1 4:04628Punt7–14
CHIQ1 2:171031Punt7–14
MINQ2 13:31841Punt7–14
CHIQ2 9:05610Turnover13–14
MINQ2 6:0417Touchdown14–14
CHIQ2 5:581179Field goal14–17
MINQ2 1:073-6Punt14–17
CHIQ2 0:33411Turnover14–17
MINQ2 0:0400End of half14–17
CHIQ3 15:0036Punt14–17
MINQ3 13:30659Turnover14–17
CHIQ3 10:22610Punt14–17
MINQ3 8:27625Field goal17–17
CHIQ3 4:55619Punt17–17
MINQ3 1:2530Punt17–17
CHIQ3 0:5568Punt17–17
MINQ4 12:481480Touchdown24–17
CHIQ4 6:0646Turnover on downs24–17
MINQ4 4:2932Punt24–17
CHIQ4 3:251097Touchdown24–24
MINQ4 0:49489Missed field goal24–24
MINOT10Turnover24–24
CHIOT36Missed field goal24–24
MINOT1028Field goal27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff George25/4437431

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Robert Smith20834.20
Leroy Hoard7284.00
Jeff George1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randy Moss12212040
Cris Carter9121413
John Henry Mills22160
Andrew Jordan11110
Andrew Glover1320
Matt Hatchette0200
Jimmy Kleinsasser0200
Jake Reed0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jim Miller34/4842231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Enis19542.80
James Allen122.00
Glyn Milburn2-7-3.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcus Robinson7121481
Marty Booker781342
Bobby Engram612420
Edgar Bennett22360
Ryan Wetnight45270
Curtis Enis44260
Glyn Milburn2260
James Allen1120
John Allred0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.54.0%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.65%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.50
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.54
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.68