Closing spread
MIN -6.5
Total
43
Model margin
+2.7est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play-0.102
- 44.6%Success rate38.6%
- +0.128EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.228
- 10.9%Explosive rate7.4%
- 44.4%Third-down rate37.0%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate44.0%
- 1.72Points / drive1.03
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.008EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. CHI are 30-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 25/44 | 374 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 20 | 83 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Leroy Hoard | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jeff George | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 12 | 21 | 204 | 0 |
| Cris Carter | 9 | 12 | 141 | 3 |
| John Henry Mills | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Andrew Jordan | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 34/48 | 422 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Enis | 19 | 54 | 2.8 | 0 |
| James Allen | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 2 | -7 | -3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Robinson | 7 | 12 | 148 | 1 |
| Marty Booker | 7 | 8 | 134 | 2 |
| Bobby Engram | 6 | 12 | 42 | 0 |
| Edgar Bennett | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Ryan Wetnight | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| James Allen | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| John Allred | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.65%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.54
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.68