Closing spread
NE -6
Total
37
Model margin
+1.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.030EPA / play-0.107
- 38.9%Success rate37.4%
- +0.047EPA / dropback-0.062
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.179
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.8%
- 34.6%Third-down rate35.1%
- 40.9%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.28Points / drive1.19
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.034EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Lucas | 18/31 | 153 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 31 | 149 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Ray Lucas | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Chrebet | 7 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 6 | 10 | 57 | 1 |
| Fred Baxter | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Curtis Martin | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Quinn Early | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 15/36 | 170 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 14 | 36 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Glenn | 4 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 2 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Ben Coates | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 1 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| Tony Simmons | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Vincent Brisby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.52