Closing spread
OAK -7
Total
36
Model margin
+3.1est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. OAK are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:44 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:42 | 3 | 46 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 10:13 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 7:18 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q1 0:39 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 14:23 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q2 11:29 | 6 | 47 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 8:42 | 15 | 83 | Missed field goal | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 39 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| LV | Q3 8:44 | 10 | 72 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| LAC | Q3 3:07 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 3–21 |
| LV | Q3 1:25 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 3–21 |
| LAC | Q4 13:03 | 6 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 3–21 |
| LV | Q4 11:23 | 10 | 69 | Touchdown | 3–28 |
| LAC | Q4 5:58 | 18 | 88 | Touchdown | 9–28 |
| LV | Q4 0:44 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 9–28 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.12
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.