Closing spread
LAC -7
Total
49
Model margin
-0.7est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play-0.070
- 41.5%Success rate41.4%
- -0.045EPA / dropback+0.018
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.242
- 5.9%Explosive rate6.9%
- -3.79CPOE-1.84
- 35.2%Third-down rate38.3%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
- 1.66Points / drive1.75
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–21 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. LAC are 31-22-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 24/39 | 238 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 17 | 58 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Zamir White | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 8 | 11 | 81 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 8 | 13 | 75 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Jakob Johnson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 13/24 | 167 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Kelley | 17 | 65 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 3 | 51 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 2 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Palmer | 3 | 8 | 77 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 3 | 5 | 32 | 1 |
| Quentin Johnston | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stone Smartt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.2%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.71