2023 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Aidan O'Connell

17·24

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -7

Total

49

Model margin

-0.7est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

4.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapChargers
  • -0.086EPA / play-0.070
  • 41.5%Success rate41.4%
  • -0.045EPA / dropback+0.018
  • -0.151EPA / rush-0.242
  • 5.9%Explosive rate6.9%
  • -3.79CPOE-1.84
  • 35.2%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
  • 1.66Points / drive1.75
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 33–22 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. LAC are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2LV @ LAC26–14RAIDERS
2025 · W13LV @ LAC14–31CHARGERS
2025 · W2LAC @ LV20–9CHARGERS
2024 · W18LAC @ LV34–20CHARGERS
2024 · W1LV @ LAC10–22CHARGERS
2023 · W15LAC @ LV21–63RAIDERS
2022 · W13LAC @ LV20–27RAIDERS
2022 · W1LV @ LAC19–24CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–LAC
LACQ1 15:001081Touchdown0–7
LVQ1 10:383-4Punt0–7
LACQ1 8:35523Punt0–7
LVQ1 5:30960Touchdown7–7
LACQ1 0:451160Field goal7–10
LVQ2 10:423-1Turnover7–10
LACQ2 9:39521Touchdown7–17
LVQ2 7:20410Turnover7–17
LACQ2 5:15630Touchdown7–24
LVQ2 3:053-2Punt7–24
LACQ2 2:0336Punt7–24
LVQ2 1:11419Punt7–24
LACQ2 0:2000End of half7–24
LVQ3 15:0035Punt7–24
LACQ3 12:153-2Punt7–24
LVQ3 11:201238Field goal10–24
LACQ3 4:51735Turnover10–24
LVQ3 1:591353Punt10–24
LACQ4 10:3732Punt10–24
LVQ4 8:281355Touchdown17–24
LACQ4 3:5949Turnover on downs17–24
LVQ4 3:30631Turnover17–24
LACQ4 2:33351End of half17–24

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aidan O'Connell24/3923801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs17583.41
Zamir White3155.00
Aidan O'Connell331.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Jacobs811810
Davante Adams813750
Jakobi Meyers24330
Ameer Abdullah22140
Hunter Renfrow24120
Jakob Johnson12120
Austin Hooper12110

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert13/2416711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joshua Kelley17653.80
Derius Davis35117.00
Justin Herbert12272.32
Isaiah Spiller5122.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Palmer38770
Keenan Allen35321
Quentin Johnston13180
Derius Davis22160
Isaiah Spiller22150
Gerald Everett2290
Donald Parham0100
Stone Smartt0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

4.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.2%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.71