Closing spread
LAC -3
Total
41
Model margin
+4.2est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.131EPA / play+0.044
- 41.0%Success rate42.3%
- -0.058EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.283EPA / rush-0.079
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.2%
- -1.46CPOE+1.69
- 34.2%Third-down rate40.1%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.51Points / drive2.25
- 2.6%Turnover rate0.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–21 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. LAC are 31-22-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 25/33 | 257 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zamir White | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 3 | 3 | 61 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Brock Bowers | 6 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 4 | 6 | 43 | 1 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| DJ Turner | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 17/26 | 144 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 10 | 135 | 13.5 | 1 |
| Gus Edwards | 11 | 26 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 5 | 7 | 39 | 1 |
| Quentin Johnston | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.51
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.21