2024 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Gardner Minshew

10·22

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -3

Total

41

Model margin

+4.2est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapChargers
  • -0.131EPA / play+0.044
  • 41.0%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.058EPA / dropback+0.127
  • -0.283EPA / rush-0.079
  • 7.2%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -1.46CPOE+1.69
  • 34.2%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 1.51Points / drive2.25
  • 2.6%Turnover rate0.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 33–22 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. LAC are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2LV @ LAC26–14RAIDERS
2025 · W13LV @ LAC14–31CHARGERS
2025 · W2LAC @ LV20–9CHARGERS
2024 · W18LAC @ LV34–20CHARGERS
2023 · W15LAC @ LV21–63RAIDERS
2023 · W4LV @ LAC17–24CHARGERS
2022 · W13LAC @ LV20–27RAIDERS
2022 · W1LV @ LAC19–24CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–LAC
LACQ1 15:00515Punt0–0
LVQ1 11:4439Punt0–0
LACQ1 9:3039Punt0–0
LVQ1 7:3148Turnover on downs0–0
LACQ1 5:55415Field goal0–3
LVQ1 4:22767Touchdown7–3
LACQ1 0:45314Punt7–3
LVQ2 14:1538Punt7–3
LACQ2 12:13419Punt7–3
LVQ2 8:58719Punt7–3
LACQ2 4:2736Punt7–3
LVQ2 2:0948Turnover7–3
LACQ2 1:1335Field goal7–6
LVQ2 0:2614End of half7–6
LVQ3 15:0038Punt7–6
LACQ3 12:53874Field goal7–9
LVQ3 9:08318Turnover7–9
LACQ3 8:2036Punt7–9
LVQ3 6:47849Missed field goal7–9
LACQ3 2:02661Touchdown7–16
LVQ4 14:55756Field goal10–16
LACQ4 10:3032Punt10–16
LVQ4 9:3039Punt10–16
LACQ4 7:09892Touchdown10–22
LVQ4 3:40733Turnover10–22
LACQ4 1:4400End of half10–22

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew25/3325711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zamir White13443.40
Alexander Mattison5193.80
Gardner Minshew351.70
Jakobi Meyers133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers33610
Davante Adams56590
Brock Bowers68580
Alexander Mattison46431
Tre Tucker23220
DJ Turner1190
Michael Mayer2330
Zamir White2220

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert17/2614410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins1013513.51
Gus Edwards11262.40
Derius Davis294.50
Justin Herbert461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ladd McConkey57391
Quentin Johnston35380
Hayden Hurst23330
Josh Palmer24150
Will Dissly11130
J.K. Dobbins3340
Gus Edwards1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.3%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.51
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.21