2023 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Easton Stick

21·63

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Aidan O'Connell

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LV -3

Total

36

Model margin

+7.0est.

LV perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapRaiders
  • -0.070EPA / play-0.086
  • 41.4%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.018EPA / dropback-0.045
  • -0.242EPA / rush-0.151
  • 6.9%Explosive rate5.9%
  • -1.84CPOE-3.79
  • 38.3%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 54.8%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.66
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 33–22 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. LV are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2LV @ LAC26–14RAIDERS
2025 · W13LV @ LAC14–31CHARGERS
2025 · W2LAC @ LV20–9CHARGERS
2024 · W18LAC @ LV34–20CHARGERS
2024 · W1LV @ LAC10–22CHARGERS
2023 · W4LV @ LAC17–24CHARGERS
2022 · W13LAC @ LV20–27RAIDERS
2022 · W1LV @ LAC19–24CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–LV
LACQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
LVQ1 13:331363Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 8:10421Turnover0–7
LVQ1 6:07442Touchdown0–14
LACQ1 4:4114Turnover0–14
LVQ1 4:36336Touchdown0–21
LACQ1 3:07620Punt0–21
LVQ2 14:5138Punt0–21
LACQ2 13:12510Punt0–21
LVQ2 10:4636Punt0–21
LVQ2 9:44214Touchdown0–28
LACQ2 9:15415Punt0–28
LVQ2 7:21665Touchdown0–35
LACQ2 3:5059Turnover on downs0–35
LVQ2 1:56649Touchdown0–42
LACQ2 0:3113End of half0–42
LVQ3 15:00960Touchdown0–49
LACQ3 10:42179Touchdown7–49
LVQ3 10:2730Punt7–49
LACQ3 8:1338Punt7–49
LVQ3 6:29617Punt7–49
LACQ3 3:27824Opp touchdown7–56
LACQ4 15:002-3Opp touchdown7–63
LACQ4 14:311175Touchdown14–63
LVQ4 8:3939Punt14–63
LACQ4 6:531050Touchdown21–63
LVQ4 2:3839Punt21–63
LACQ4 0:3114End of half21–63

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Easton Stick23/3225731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Spiller16503.10
Joshua Kelley5224.40
Easton Stick2115.50
Austin Ekeler591.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Palmer441131
Gerald Everett58410
Austin Ekeler46290
Quentin Johnston23231
Jalen Guyton22190
Stone Smartt33150
Alex Erickson12131
Joshua Kelley1160
Derius Davis12-20

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aidan O'Connell20/3424840
Jakobi Meyers2/21210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zamir White17694.11
Ameer Abdullah6325.30
Brandon Bolden22512.51
Tre Tucker1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams8121011
Tre Tucker34592
Michael Mayer45391
Jakobi Meyers24321
Zamir White34160
Ameer Abdullah22130
Austin Hooper0100
Hunter Renfrow0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.1%5.9%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

7.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.5%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.93
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.05