Closing spread
LV -3
Total
36
Model margin
+7.0est.
LV perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.086
- 41.4%Success rate41.5%
- +0.018EPA / dropback-0.045
- -0.242EPA / rush-0.151
- 6.9%Explosive rate5.9%
- -1.84CPOE-3.79
- 38.3%Third-down rate35.2%
- 54.8%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.75Points / drive1.66
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–21 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. LV are 22-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Easton Stick | 23/32 | 257 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Spiller | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Easton Stick | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Palmer | 4 | 4 | 113 | 1 |
| Gerald Everett | 5 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Jalen Guyton | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Stone Smartt | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 20/34 | 248 | 4 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 2/2 | 12 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zamir White | 17 | 69 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 1 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 8 | 12 | 101 | 1 |
| Tre Tucker | 3 | 4 | 59 | 2 |
| Michael Mayer | 4 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 2 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Zamir White | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.5%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.93
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.05