Closing spread
LAC -7
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
LV perspective
Push chance
4.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play-0.131
- 42.3%Success rate41.0%
- +0.127EPA / dropback-0.058
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.283
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.2%
- +1.69CPOE-1.46
- 40.1%Third-down rate34.2%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 2.25Points / drive1.51
- 0.8%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–21 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. LV are 22-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 28/36 | 346 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 18 | 63 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 42 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Johnston | 13 | 14 | 186 | 0 |
| Ladd McConkey | 5 | 8 | 95 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 5 | 6 | 42 | 1 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 24/34 | 214 | 2 | 1 |
| Desmond Ridder | 1/2 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Chris Collier | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 9 | 10 | 123 | 1 |
| Brock Bowers | 4 | 9 | 50 | 1 |
| Tre Tucker | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 4 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Collier | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.51
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.91
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.02