2024 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

34·20

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Aidan O'Connell

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LAC -7

Total

42.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

LV perspective

Push chance

4.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapRaiders
  • +0.044EPA / play-0.131
  • 42.3%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback-0.058
  • -0.079EPA / rush-0.283
  • 9.2%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +1.69CPOE-1.46
  • 40.1%Third-down rate34.2%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.51
  • 0.8%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 33–22 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. LV are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2LV @ LAC26–14RAIDERS
2025 · W13LV @ LAC14–31CHARGERS
2025 · W2LAC @ LV20–9CHARGERS
2024 · W1LV @ LAC10–22CHARGERS
2023 · W15LAC @ LV21–63RAIDERS
2023 · W4LV @ LAC17–24CHARGERS
2022 · W13LAC @ LV20–27RAIDERS
2022 · W1LV @ LAC19–24CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–LV
LVQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
LACQ1 12:5639Punt0–0
LVQ1 10:5036Punt0–0
LACQ1 9:19645Missed field goal0–0
LVQ1 5:03637Field goal0–3
LACQ1 2:46555Field goal3–3
LVQ1 0:11665Touchdown3–10
LACQ2 13:041566Field goal6–10
LVQ2 5:2833Punt6–10
LACQ2 3:52852Field goal9–10
LVQ2 1:0525Turnover9–10
LACQ2 0:38330Touchdown17–10
LVQ2 0:1000End of half17–10
LACQ3 15:001361Field goal20–10
LVQ3 7:10836Field goal20–13
LACQ3 2:15775Touchdown27–13
LVQ4 13:32735Turnover on downs27–13
LACQ4 10:501281Touchdown34–13
LVQ4 3:381270Touchdown34–20
LACQ4 0:2500End of half34–20

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert28/3634620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins18633.50
Justin Herbert44210.50
Hassan Haskins12332.81
Derius Davis1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quentin Johnston13141860
Ladd McConkey58950
Will Dissly56421
J.K. Dobbins33120
DJ Chark1361
Derius Davis1150

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aidan O'Connell24/3421421
Desmond Ridder1/21100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alexander Mattison6203.30
Aidan O'Connell4133.30
Chris Collier263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers9101231
Brock Bowers49501
Tre Tucker34240
Michael Mayer44210
Alexander Mattison45110
Chris Collier12-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -74.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

4.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.51
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.91
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.02