Closing spread
LAC -10
Total
40.5
Model margin
+6.1est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.192EPA / play-0.016
- 38.6%Success rate43.6%
- -0.130EPA / dropback+0.021
- -0.304EPA / rush-0.080
- 6.7%Explosive rate7.4%
- -0.91CPOE+0.01
- 34.1%Third-down rate46.7%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.25Points / drive2.10
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–21 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. LAC are 31-22-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 18/23 | 165 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 15 | 31 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 4 | 4 | 63 | 2 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 6 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Jack Bech | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 15/20 | 151 | 2 | 1 |
| Trey Lance | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimani Vidal | 25 | 126 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Jaret Patterson | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Justin Herbert | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Trey Lance | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 4 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Tre Harris | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 3 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Kimani Vidal | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.1%
Expected total
40.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.82
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.09