2025 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Geno Smith

14·31

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -10

Total

40.5

Model margin

+6.1est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapChargers
  • -0.192EPA / play-0.016
  • 38.6%Success rate43.6%
  • -0.130EPA / dropback+0.021
  • -0.304EPA / rush-0.080
  • 6.7%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -0.91CPOE+0.01
  • 34.1%Third-down rate46.7%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
  • 1.25Points / drive2.10
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 33–22 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. LAC are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2LV @ LAC26–14RAIDERS
2025 · W2LAC @ LV20–9CHARGERS
2024 · W18LAC @ LV34–20CHARGERS
2024 · W1LV @ LAC10–22CHARGERS
2023 · W15LAC @ LV21–63RAIDERS
2023 · W4LV @ LAC17–24CHARGERS
2022 · W13LAC @ LV20–27RAIDERS
2022 · W1LV @ LAC19–24CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–LAC
LVQ1 15:003-3Punt0–0
LACQ1 13:111469Touchdown0–7
LVQ1 4:21419Punt0–7
LACQ1 1:481472Turnover0–7
LVQ2 8:3521Turnover0–7
LACQ2 7:4849Turnover on downs0–7
LVQ2 6:321069Touchdown7–7
LACQ2 1:5039Punt7–7
LVQ2 0:2000End of half7–7
LACQ3 15:00367Touchdown7–14
LVQ3 14:0331Punt7–14
LACQ3 11:5630Punt7–14
LVQ3 9:373-3Punt7–14
LACQ3 7:25860Touchdown7–21
LVQ3 2:2348Turnover on downs7–21
LACQ3 0:5134Field goal7–24
LVQ4 14:491462Touchdown14–24
LACQ4 7:491353Touchdown14–31
LVQ4 1:5543Turnover on downs14–31
LACQ4 0:4500End of half14–31

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith18/2316521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ashton Jeanty15312.10
Raheem Mostert166.00
Geno Smith2-6-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brock Bowers44632
Ashton Jeanty68300
Jack Bech23220
Tre Tucker33200
Tyler Lockett11110
Dont'e Thornton Jr.12110
Ian Thomas1180

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert15/2015121
Trey Lance1/1900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kimani Vidal251265.01
Jaret Patterson11544.91
Justin Herbert382.70
Trey Lance441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ladd McConkey46391
Keenan Allen45300
Tre Harris34300
Oronde Gadsden II12270
Quentin Johnston33231
Kimani Vidal11110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.1%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

3.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.1%

Expected total

40.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+6.09