Closing spread
LV -2.5
Total
49
Model margin
-1.2est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play+0.009
- 44.1%Success rate43.4%
- +0.037EPA / dropback+0.057
- -0.057EPA / rush-0.071
- 6.9%Explosive rate9.9%
- +1.13CPOE-2.03
- 43.5%Third-down rate39.7%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 1.97Points / drive2.10
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–21 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. LV are 22-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 28/47 | 335 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 6 | 14 | 88 | 1 |
| Gerald Everett | 5 | 6 | 80 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 7 | 11 | 60 | 0 |
| Michael Bandy | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Tre' McKitty | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Stone Smartt | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 16/30 | 250 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 26 | 144 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Zamir White | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 8 | 12 | 177 | 2 |
| Mack Hollins | 5 | 9 | 35 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.8%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.92
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.21