2022 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

20·27

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LV -2.5

Total

49

Model margin

-1.2est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapRaiders
  • +0.007EPA / play+0.009
  • 44.1%Success rate43.4%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback+0.057
  • -0.057EPA / rush-0.071
  • 6.9%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +1.13CPOE-2.03
  • 43.5%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 1.97Points / drive2.10
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 33–22 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. LV are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2LV @ LAC26–14RAIDERS
2025 · W13LV @ LAC14–31CHARGERS
2025 · W2LAC @ LV20–9CHARGERS
2024 · W18LAC @ LV34–20CHARGERS
2024 · W1LV @ LAC10–22CHARGERS
2023 · W15LAC @ LV21–63RAIDERS
2023 · W4LV @ LAC17–24CHARGERS
2022 · W1LV @ LAC19–24CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–LV
LVQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
LACQ1 13:17717Punt0–0
LVQ1 9:41414Turnover0–0
LACQ1 7:3949Turnover on downs0–0
LVQ1 6:1135Opp touchdown7–0
LVQ1 5:07412Punt7–0
LACQ1 3:121261Field goal10–0
LVQ2 11:37875Touchdown10–7
LACQ2 7:5239Punt10–7
LVQ2 5:39837Field goal10–10
LACQ2 2:171159Field goal13–10
LVQ2 0:27341Missed field goal13–10
LACQ2 0:0400End of half13–10
LACQ3 15:00211Turnover13–16
LVQ3 14:36131Touchdown13–17
LACQ3 14:28842Missed field goal13–17
LVQ3 11:25258Touchdown13–24
LACQ3 10:53416Punt13–24
LVQ3 8:291374Field goal13–27
LACQ4 14:491373Touchdown20–27
LVQ4 8:34733Punt20–27
LACQ4 5:12849Turnover on downs20–27
LVQ4 2:42518Punt20–27
LACQ4 0:22341End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert28/4733510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler10353.50
Joshua Kelley7304.30
Justin Herbert571.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen614881
Gerald Everett56800
Austin Ekeler56670
Josh Palmer711600
Michael Bandy11150
DeAndre Carter12140
Tre' McKitty1180
Stone Smartt2330
Joshua Kelley0100

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr16/3025021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs261445.51
Zamir White263.00
Ameer Abdullah144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams8121772
Mack Hollins59350
Foster Moreau13320
Josh Jacobs2260
Ameer Abdullah0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

7.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.8%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.92
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.21