Closing spread
LAC -6.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-8.6est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play-0.167
- 43.1%Success rate40.0%
- +0.027EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.360
- 7.7%Explosive rate5.5%
- +0.71CPOE-6.21
- 41.7%Third-down rate25.0%
- 75.0%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 2.44Points / drive1.39
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–21 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. LAC are 31-22-1 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
27.3%
Expected total
38.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-10.77
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-8.55