2026 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Kirk Cousins

26·14

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -6.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapChargers
  • +0.019EPA / play-0.209
  • 43.1%Success rate36.9%
  • +0.168EPA / dropback-0.191
  • -0.252EPA / rush-0.235
  • 7.6%Explosive rate6.6%
  • -1.41CPOE-5.83
  • 40.6%Third-down rate33.8%
  • 55.6%Red-zone TD rate59.2%
  • 2.49Points / drive1.22
  • 1.3%Turnover rate3.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 33–22 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. LAC are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13LV @ LAC14–31CHARGERS
2025 · W2LAC @ LV20–9CHARGERS
2024 · W18LAC @ LV34–20CHARGERS
2024 · W1LV @ LAC10–22CHARGERS
2023 · W15LAC @ LV21–63RAIDERS
2023 · W4LV @ LAC17–24CHARGERS
2022 · W13LAC @ LV20–27RAIDERS
2022 · W1LV @ LAC19–24CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–LAC
LACQ1 15:00728Missed field goal0–0
LVQ1 11:39630Turnover0–0
LACQ1 8:57615Punt0–0
LVQ1 5:2937Punt0–0
LACQ1 4:0435Turnover0–0
LVQ1 3:14522Turnover on downs0–0
LACQ1 0:3538Punt0–0
LVQ2 13:13356Touchdown7–0
LACQ2 11:511179Touchdown7–7
LVQ2 5:26619Punt7–7
LACQ2 1:53621Punt7–7
LVQ2 0:35543Field goal10–7
LACQ2 0:04117End of half10–7
LVQ3 15:0031Punt10–7
LACQ3 13:56779Touchdown10–14
LVQ3 9:491179Touchdown17–14
LACQ3 3:5339Punt17–14
LVQ3 1:29918Punt17–14
LACQ4 12:26728Punt17–14
LVQ4 8:1939Punt17–14
LACQ4 6:47717Turnover17–14
LVQ4 3:42316Touchdown24–14
LACQ4 2:5944Turnover24–14
LVQ4 2:2438Punt24–14
LACQ4 1:5220Safety26–14
LVQ4 1:4100End of half26–14

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins19/2925331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ashton Jeanty21482.30
Mike Washington Jr.372.30
Kirk Cousins410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tre Tucker571191
Dareke Young11270
Jack Bech22250
Cody White22242
Michael Mayer34230
Ashton Jeanty47150
Ian Thomas11110
Jalen Nailor1390
Mike Washington Jr.0100
Malik Benson0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert15/2719212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Omarion Hampton23944.11
Keaton Mitchell5244.80
Quentin Johnston177.00
Justin Herbert320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tre Harris13530
Ladd McConkey33350
Charlie Kolar33210
Omarion Hampton22210
Oronde Gadsden II22181
Keaton Mitchell11150
Brenen Thompson13130
David Njoku1390
Quentin Johnston1570
Derius Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

4.67%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.91