Closing spread
LAC -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-2.3est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play-0.192
- 43.6%Success rate38.6%
- +0.021EPA / dropback-0.130
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.304
- 7.4%Explosive rate6.7%
- +0.01CPOE-0.91
- 46.7%Third-down rate34.1%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 2.10Points / drive1.25
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–21 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. LV are 22-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 19/27 | 242 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Omarion Hampton | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Johnston | 3 | 7 | 71 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| Ladd McConkey | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Tre Harris | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Omarion Hampton | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 24/43 | 180 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 6 | 12 | 68 | 0 |
| Brock Bowers | 5 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Dylan Laube | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 3 | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.0%
Expected total
40.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.82
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin-2.28