2025 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

20·9

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Geno Smith

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LAC -3.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-2.3est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapRaiders
  • -0.016EPA / play-0.192
  • 43.6%Success rate38.6%
  • +0.021EPA / dropback-0.130
  • -0.080EPA / rush-0.304
  • 7.4%Explosive rate6.7%
  • +0.01CPOE-0.91
  • 46.7%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 48.9%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 2.10Points / drive1.25
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 33–22 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. LV are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2LV @ LAC26–14RAIDERS
2025 · W13LV @ LAC14–31CHARGERS
2024 · W18LAC @ LV34–20CHARGERS
2024 · W1LV @ LAC10–22CHARGERS
2023 · W15LAC @ LV21–63RAIDERS
2023 · W4LV @ LAC17–24CHARGERS
2022 · W13LAC @ LV20–27RAIDERS
2022 · W1LV @ LAC19–24CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–LV
LVQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
LACQ1 14:4535Field goal3–0
LVQ1 13:431034Field goal3–3
LACQ1 9:0235Punt3–3
LVQ1 7:5733Punt3–3
LACQ1 5:341060Touchdown10–3
LVQ1 0:201248Field goal10–6
LACQ2 9:5434Punt10–6
LVQ2 8:06626Punt10–6
LACQ2 4:34591Touchdown17–6
LVQ2 1:51417Turnover17–6
LACQ2 1:04419End of half17–6
LACQ3 15:001172Field goal20–6
LVQ3 7:302067Field goal20–9
LACQ4 11:15730Turnover on downs20–9
LVQ4 8:10623Turnover20–9
LACQ4 5:5836Punt20–9
LVQ4 4:234-4Turnover on downs20–9
LACQ4 3:5110Turnover20–9
LVQ4 3:4544Turnover on downs20–9
LACQ4 3:05627End of half20–9

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert19/2724220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Herbert9313.40
Najee Harris8283.50
Omarion Hampton8243.00
Quentin Johnston1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quentin Johnston37711
Keenan Allen57611
Ladd McConkey55480
Tre Harris23340
Najee Harris22200
Will Dissly1170
Omarion Hampton1210

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith24/4318003

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ashton Jeanty11433.90
Geno Smith5204.00
Tre Tucker177.00
Zamir White2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers612680
Brock Bowers58380
Dont'e Thornton Jr.14200
Dylan Laube22170
Zamir White23150
Tre Tucker38120
Michael Mayer2290
Ashton Jeanty3410

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.0%

Expected total

40.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.16
  • Expected margin-2.28