Closing spread
SF -1
Total
38.5
Model margin
+6.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play-0.148
- 41.7%Success rate36.9%
- -0.026EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.247
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.7%
- 34.4%Third-down rate34.1%
- 42.7%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
- 1.14Points / drive1.12
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.079EPA / play allowed+0.007
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 12–9 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. NO are 11-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 82 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 9:37 | 15 | 44 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| NO | Q1 1:33 | 14 | 87 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| SF | Q2 9:31 | 14 | 68 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| NO | Q2 0:37 | 2 | 4 | End of half | 6–14 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 6–14 |
| NO | Q3 11:52 | 9 | 90 | Touchdown | 6–21 |
| SF | Q3 7:30 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–21 |
| NO | Q3 5:40 | 11 | 30 | Punt | 6–21 |
| SF | Q4 14:49 | 5 | 33 | Punt | 6–21 |
| NO | Q4 12:12 | 7 | 46 | Field goal | 6–24 |
| SF | Q4 7:38 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–24 |
| NO | Q4 6:47 | 5 | 3 | Punt | 6–24 |
| SF | Q4 4:41 | 10 | 56 | Turnover | 6–24 |
| NO | Q4 2:30 | 4 | 24 | End of half | 6–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Stenstrom | 18/32 | 157 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Steve Stenstrom | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 5 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Jerry Rice | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Mark Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Joe Tolliver | 12/15 | 242 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 30 | 99 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Billy Joe Tolliver | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 2 |
| Lamar Smith | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Poole | 2 | 3 | 74 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 3 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| Andre Hastings | 2 | 2 | 53 | 1 |
| Eddie Kennison | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Scott Slutzker | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.4%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+5.50
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.61