Closing spread
TEN -10
Total
41
Model margin
+0.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.068
- 40.1%Success rate39.4%
- +0.067EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.132
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.1%
- 39.0%Third-down rate39.2%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate43.1%
- 1.52Points / drive1.24
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.042EPA / play allowed+0.041
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. CIN are 12-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 12/25 | 103 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 29 | 123 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Rodney Thomas | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Dyson | 4 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Yancey Thigpen | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 18/32 | 236 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 14 | 33 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnay Scott | 5 | 8 | 85 | 1 |
| Tony McGee | 2 | 2 | 49 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Carl Pickens | 4 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.40
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.16