1999 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

24·14

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jeff Blake

Cinergy Field · outdoors · astroturf · 63°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

TEN -10

Total

41

Model margin

+0.2est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBengals
  • +0.007EPA / play-0.068
  • 40.1%Success rate39.4%
  • +0.067EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.083EPA / rush-0.132
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.1%
  • 39.0%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 58.0%Red-zone TD rate43.1%
  • 1.52Points / drive1.24
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.042EPA / play allowed+0.041

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 10–10 since 1999

CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. CIN are 12-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8TEN @ CIN36–43CIN
2024 · W15CIN @ TEN37–27CIN
2023 · W4CIN @ TEN3–27TEN
2022 · W12CIN @ TEN20–16CIN
2021 · playoffsCIN @ TEN19–16CIN
2020 · W8TEN @ CIN20–31CIN
2017 · W10CIN @ TEN20–24TEN
2014 · W3TEN @ CIN7–33CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–CIN
TENQ1 15:00871Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 10:24418Punt7–0
TENQ1 8:00513Punt7–0
CINQ1 5:3959Turnover7–0
TENQ1 2:49512Touchdown14–0
CINQ1 0:143-13Punt14–0
TENQ2 13:3646Turnover on downs14–0
CINQ2 11:3548Turnover on downs14–0
TENQ2 9:3139Punt14–0
CINQ2 7:3936Punt14–0
TENQ2 5:43522Punt14–0
CINQ2 3:021169Missed field goal14–6
CINQ3 15:0000Touchdown14–7
TENQ3 14:42413Punt14–7
CINQ3 12:1134Punt14–7
TENQ3 10:41517Punt14–7
CINQ3 8:2936Turnover14–7
TENQ3 7:28216Touchdown21–7
CINQ3 7:0500Field goal21–7
TENQ3 6:53730Field goal24–7
CINQ3 2:263-8Punt24–7
TENQ3 0:45418Turnover24–7
CINQ4 14:09864Turnover on downs24–7
TENQ4 10:203-6Punt24–7
CINQ4 8:551055Turnover24–7
TENQ4 5:4332Punt24–7
CINQ4 4:02446Touchdown24–14
TENQ4 2:38426End of half24–14

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair12/2510300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George291234.22
Steve McNair5142.81
Rodney Thomas2126.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Dyson49390
Yancey Thigpen25300
Jackie Harris35210
Isaac Byrd12120
Frank Wycheck2210
Eddie George0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Blake18/3223610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Blake5346.80
Corey Dillon14332.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnay Scott58851
Tony McGee22490
Corey Dillon34370
Carl Pickens47280
Willie Jackson25170
Marco Battaglia0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -102.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.68%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.5%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.40
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.16