1999 · Week 11
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -7
Total
34.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.094EPA / play-0.149
- 38.5%Success rate35.1%
- -0.017EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.220EPA / rush-0.193
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.7%
- 35.1%Third-down rate35.3%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate37.2%
- 1.22Points / drive1.03
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.3%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.164
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 26–25 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. TB are 28-21-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 13:25 | 10 | 47 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| TB | Q1 7:10 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q1 6:08 | 10 | 42 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| TB | Q1 0:53 | 11 | 82 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| ATL | Q2 9:13 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–3 |
| TB | Q2 6:42 | 17 | 71 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| ATL | Q2 0:08 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–6 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 10–6 |
| TB | Q3 11:42 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–6 |
| ATL | Q3 10:08 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–6 |
| TB | Q3 8:33 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–6 |
| ATL | Q3 6:33 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 10–6 |
| TB | Q3 3:49 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 10–6 |
| ATL | Q3 1:23 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 10–6 |
| TB | Q4 12:17 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–6 |
| ATL | Q4 10:11 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 10–6 |
| TB | Q4 9:15 | 7 | 34 | Field goal | 10–9 |
| ATL | Q4 5:32 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–9 |
| TB | Q4 3:45 | 8 | 26 | Field goal | 10–12 |
| ATL | Q4 0:58 | 3 | 3 | Opp touchdown | 10–19 |
| TB | Q4 0:27 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 10–19 |
| ATL | Q4 0:27 | 2 | -3 | End of half | 10–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 14/25 | 109 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Oxendine | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Chris Chandler | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Byron Hanspard | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winslow Oliver | 4 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 4 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Jammi German | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Ken Oxendine | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 15/31 | 142 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquez Green | 5 | 12 | 75 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| John Davis | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.75