2022 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Blaine Gabbert

17·30

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Desmond Ridder

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -6

Total

40.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.030EPA / play+0.002
  • 44.0%Success rate45.4%
  • +0.052EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.208EPA / rush+0.004
  • 6.5%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +0.30CPOE-0.74
  • 38.1%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 51.4%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.97
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 25–25 since 1999

Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W5ATL @ TB15–21TB
2021 · W13TB @ ATL30–17TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–ATL
TBQ1 15:001070Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 9:473-10Punt7–0
TBQ1 8:1734Punt7–0
ATLQ1 7:22976Touchdown7–7
TBQ1 3:2228Turnover7–7
ATLQ1 2:3033Field goal7–10
TBQ1 0:541362Field goal10–10
ATLQ2 8:1538Punt10–10
TBQ2 6:2832Punt10–10
ATLQ2 4:472-5Turnover10–10
TBQ2 4:00627Touchdown17–10
ATLQ2 1:4636Punt17–10
TBQ2 0:50211End of half17–10
ATLQ3 15:00869Field goal17–13
TBQ3 10:2739Punt17–13
ATLQ3 8:491480Touchdown17–20
TBQ3 0:5132Punt17–20
ATLQ4 14:111091Touchdown17–27
TBQ4 8:0734Punt17–27
ATLQ4 7:10952Field goal17–30
TBQ4 4:00723Turnover on downs17–30
ATLQ4 2:28412End of half17–30

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady13/178410
Blaine Gabbert6/82910
Kyle Trask3/92300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard7284.00
Ke'Shawn Vaughn8263.30
Deven Thompkins11717.00
Rachaad White4153.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.67550
Deven Thompkins49250
Russell Gage36151
Breshad Perriman1290
Kyle Rudolph1181
Scott Miller1280
Ke'Shawn Vaughn2280
Cade Otton1150
Leonard Fournette1140
Giovani Bernard22-10

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Desmond Ridder19/3022420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Allgeier241355.60
Cordarrelle Patterson5183.61
Avery Williams4123.00
Desmond Ridder294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London681200
Olamide Zaccheaus47371
MyCole Pruitt35341
Frank Darby11150
Anthony Firkser11110
Parker Hesse1160
Cordarrelle Patterson2310
Damiere Byrd1100
Josh Ali0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.2%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.50
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.04
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.16