2022 · Week 18 · Division
Final
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf
Closing spread
ATL -6
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.030EPA / play+0.002
- 44.0%Success rate45.4%
- +0.052EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.208EPA / rush+0.004
- 6.5%Explosive rate9.6%
- +0.30CPOE-0.74
- 38.1%Third-down rate41.9%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 1.63Points / drive1.97
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 13/17 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 6/8 | 29 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Trask | 3/9 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 6 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 4 | 9 | 25 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 3 | 6 | 15 | 1 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 19/30 | 224 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 24 | 135 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Avery Williams | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Desmond Ridder | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 6 | 8 | 120 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 4 | 7 | 37 | 1 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 3 | 5 | 34 | 1 |
| Frank Darby | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Parker Hesse | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Ali | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.50
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.04
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.16