2023 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

29·25

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Desmond Ridder

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -1.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+0.7est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.089
  • 40.5%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.171
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +0.25CPOE-3.52
  • 42.2%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.58
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 25–25 since 1999

Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL
2022 · W5ATL @ TB15–21TB
2021 · W13TB @ ATL30–17TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–ATL
TBQ1 15:00838Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 9:271573Field goal3–3
TBQ1 1:2332Punt3–3
ATLQ1 0:2510Turnover3–3
TBQ1 0:2028Touchdown10–3
ATLQ2 14:57677Touchdown10–10
TBQ2 12:09928Turnover on downs10–10
ATLQ2 6:44421Missed field goal10–10
TBQ2 4:2032Punt12–10
ATLQ2 2:441-8Safety12–10
TBQ2 2:3637Punt12–10
ATLQ2 0:58519Missed field goal12–10
ATLQ3 15:00622Punt12–10
TBQ3 12:2538Punt12–10
ATLQ3 11:2430Punt12–10
TBQ3 10:5931Punt12–10
ATLQ3 9:4534Punt12–10
TBQ3 8:46966Touchdown19–10
ATLQ3 4:06823Punt19–10
TBQ3 0:2235Punt19–10
ATLQ4 14:02856Touchdown19–17
TBQ4 11:10955Field goal22–17
ATLQ4 6:10575Touchdown22–25
TBQ4 3:231370Touchdown29–25
ATLQ4 0:31572End of half29–25

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield14/2914420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White251024.10
Chase Edmonds8405.00
Baker Mayfield331.01
Trey Palmer133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.511530
Rachaad White22331
Chase Edmonds22180
Cade Otton25161
David Moore11110
Mike Evans1680
Trey Palmer1150
Ko Kieft0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Desmond Ridder26/4034711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Allgeier9404.40
Bijan Robinson10343.41
Desmond Ridder4153.81
Cordarrelle Patterson372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London10111720
Kyle Pitts36571
Bijan Robinson57540
Jonnu Smith47270
KhaDarel Hodge12180
MyCole Pruitt22150
Mack Hollins1140
Scott Miller0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.65