2023 · Week 14 · Division
Final
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf
Closing spread
ATL -1.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.089
- 40.5%Success rate41.5%
- +0.110EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.171
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.7%
- +0.25CPOE-3.52
- 42.2%Third-down rate40.2%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 1.86Points / drive1.58
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 14/29 | 144 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 25 | 102 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Trey Palmer | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 11 | 53 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 2 | 33 | 1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 5 | 16 | 1 |
| David Moore | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 1 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Trey Palmer | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ko Kieft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 26/40 | 347 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Desmond Ridder | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 10 | 11 | 172 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 6 | 57 | 1 |
| Bijan Robinson | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.65