2025 · Week 1 · Division
Final
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf
Closing spread
TB -1.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.006EPA / play-0.008
- 43.3%Success rate44.5%
- +0.064EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.073
- 8.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- -2.55CPOE-3.36
- 41.0%Third-down rate33.5%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 1.89Points / drive1.82
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 17/32 | 167 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emeka Egbuka | 4 | 6 | 67 | 2 |
| Mike Evans | 5 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 4 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tez Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 27/42 | 298 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 12 | 24 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 6 | 7 | 100 | 1 |
| Kyle Pitts | 7 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Drake London | 8 | 15 | 55 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 3 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Casey Washington | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.89