2025 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

23·20

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Penix

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

TB -1.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.006EPA / play-0.008
  • 43.3%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.064EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.073
  • 8.4%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -2.55CPOE-3.36
  • 41.0%Third-down rate33.5%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.82
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 25–25 since 1999

Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL
2022 · W5ATL @ TB15–21TB
2021 · W13TB @ ATL30–17TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00365Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 13:1432Punt0–7
ATLQ1 12:11940Punt0–7
TBQ1 6:2835Punt0–7
ATLQ1 4:4635Punt0–7
TBQ1 3:241666Field goal3–7
ATLQ2 10:1759Turnover on downs3–7
TBQ2 8:57552Touchdown10–7
ATLQ2 6:531248Field goal10–10
TBQ2 0:533-5Punt10–10
ATLQ2 0:0910End of half10–10
TBQ3 15:00739Missed field goal10–10
ATLQ3 11:4258Punt10–10
TBQ3 9:39532Touchdown17–10
ATLQ3 7:261063Field goal17–13
TBQ3 0:20922Punt17–13
ATLQ4 11:032061Touchdown17–20
TBQ4 2:17648Touchdown23–20
ATLQ4 0:59760Missed field goal23–20
TBQ4 0:0200End of half23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield17/3216730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Baker Mayfield5397.80
Bucky Irving14372.60
Rachaad White2147.00
Emeka Egbuka199.00
Sean Tucker122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emeka Egbuka46672
Mike Evans58510
Sterling Shepard36390
Bucky Irving4481
Rachaad White1120
Cade Otton0300
Ryan Miller0100
Tez Johnson0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Michael Penix Jr.27/4229810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Allgeier10242.40
Bijan Robinson12242.00
Michael Penix Jr.6213.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bijan Robinson671001
Kyle Pitts78590
Drake London815550
Ray-Ray McCloud35510
Casey Washington36330
KhaDarel Hodge0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.1%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.89