2026 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Penix Jr.

0·16

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass

Final · play by play

How it finished

Final

B.Mayfield kneels to ATL 35 for -1 yards.

Last play · Buccaneers · Rush

Win probability · ESPN's model, not ours

0% FalconsBuccaneers 100%

Scoring

  1. Q1 7:43Buccaneers Chase McLaughlin 46 Yd Field Goal0-3
  2. Q1 4:02Buccaneers Chase McLaughlin 34 Yd Field Goal0-6
  3. Q2 4:04Buccaneers Chase McLaughlin 42 Yd Field Goal0-9
  4. Q3 3:47Buccaneers Bucky Irving 4 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)0-16

Every drive · newest first

Q4 3:10Buccaneers 8 plays, 51 yards, 3:10 · from TB 14End of Game
  1. Q4 0:00END GAME
  2. 1st & 10B.Mayfield kneels to ATL 35 for -1 yards.
  3. 3rd & 1K.Gainwell right guard to ATL 34 for 2 yards (C.Henderson).
  4. 2nd & 6K.Gainwell right tackle to ATL 36 for 5 yards (L.London; C.Thomas).
  5. 2nd & 6Two-Minute Warning
  6. 1st & 10K.Gainwell right guard to ATL 41 for 4 yards (X.Watts; C.Henderson).
  7. 1st & 10Timeout #2 by TB at 02:04.
  8. 1st & 10K.Gainwell right tackle to ATL 45 for 12 yards (X.Watts; K.Daniels).
  9. 1st & 10Timeout #3 by ATL at 02:51.
  10. 2nd & 4K.Gainwell right guard to TB 43 for 12 yards (G.Dexter).
  11. 2nd & 4Timeout #2 by ATL at 02:58.
  12. 1st & 10K.Gainwell right end to TB 31 for 6 yards (J.Bates).
  13. 2nd & 4PENALTY on ATL-M.Smith, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at TB 20 - No Play.
  14. 2nd & 5Timeout #1 by ATL at 03:05.
  15. 1st & 10K.Gainwell right guard to TB 20 for 6 yards (M.Smith; X.Watts).
Q4 4:35Falcons 5 plays, 84 yards, 1:25 · from ATL 2Downs
  1. 4th & 2(Shotgun) M.Penix pass incomplete short middle to O.Zaccheaus.
  2. 3rd & 2(Shotgun) M.Penix pass incomplete short middle to K.Pitts (A.Robinson).
  3. 2nd & 2(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Penix pass incomplete short left to J.Dotson (J.Parrish).
  4. 1st & 10(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Penix pass short right to D.London to TB 14 for 8 yards (K.Scott).
  5. 1st & 10(Shotgun) M.Penix pass deep left to J.Dotson to TB 22 for 76 yards (A.Winfield).
Q4 6:57Buccaneers 3 plays, -1 yard, 2:22 · from ATL 49Punt
  1. 4th & 11R.Dixon punts 48 yards to ATL 2, Center-E.Deckers, downed by TB-K.Johnson.
  2. 3rd & 8K.Gainwell left end to 50 for -3 yards (J.Woods, C.Thomas).
  3. 2nd & 9K.Gainwell right tackle to ATL 47 for 1 yard (L.London).
  4. 1st & 10K.Gainwell right end to ATL 48 for 1 yard (C.Henderson).
Q4 7:18Falcons 3 plays, 0 yards, 0:21 · from ATL 12Punt
  1. 4th & 10J.Bailey punts 45 yards to TB 43, Center-L.McCullough. T.Johnson to ATL 49 for 8 yards (H.Perkins).
  2. 3rd & 10(Shotgun) M.Penix pass incomplete deep right to D.London.
  3. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) M.Penix pass incomplete short right to K.Pitts.
  4. 1st & 10(Shotgun) M.Penix pass incomplete short right to D.London.
Q4 13:29Buccaneers 8 plays, 30 yards, 6:11 · from TB 14Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 07:18.
  2. 4th & 9R.Dixon punts 44 yards to ATL 12, Center-E.Deckers, fair catch by O.Zaccheaus.
  3. 4th & 4(Punt formation) PENALTY on TB, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at TB 49 - No Play.
  4. 3rd & 1B.Irving left end to TB 49 for -3 yards (M.Smith).
  5. 2nd & 7K.Gainwell right end to ATL 48 for 6 yards (K.Daniels).
  6. 1st & 10K.Gainwell up the middle to TB 46 for 3 yards (G.Dexter).
  7. 2nd & 2K.Gainwell right end to TB 43 for 10 yards (X.Watts).
  8. 1st & 10K.Gainwell left end to TB 33 for 8 yards (K.Daniels).
  9. 1st & 10Timeout #1 by TB at 11:13.
  10. 3rd & 2(Shotgun) K.Gainwell right end to TB 25 for 3 yards (L.London; C.Henderson).
  11. 2nd & 7(Shotgun) K.Gainwell right tackle to TB 22 for 5 yards (A.Terrell; X.Watts).
  12. 1st & 10(Shotgun) K.Gainwell left tackle to TB 17 for 3 yards (Z.Harrison).
Q3 3:47Falcons 10 plays, 43 yards, 5:18 · from ATL 33Interception
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 13:29.
  2. 2nd & 6(Shotgun) M.Penix pass short right intended for C.Woerner INTERCEPTED by Z.McCollum at TB 14. Z.McCollum ran ob at TB 14 for no gain.
  3. 1st & 10M.Penix pass short left to O.Zaccheaus to TB 24 for 4 yards (A.Winfield).
  4. 4th & 1M.Penix up the middle to TB 28 for 2 yards (R.Nunez-Roches).
  5. Q3 0:00END QUARTER 3
  6. 3rd & 1M.Penix up the middle to TB 30 for no gain (C.Kancey).
  7. 2nd & 1M.Penix pass incomplete short left. ** Injury Update: TB-T.Smith has returned to the game.
  8. 1st & 10M.Penix pass short left to A.Hooper to TB 30 for 9 yards (J.Parrish).
  9. 4th & 4(Shotgun) M.Penix scrambles left end ran ob at TB 39 for 7 yards (J.Parrish).
  10. 3rd & 2(Shotgun) Bi.Robinson left end to TB 46 for -2 yards (A.Anzalone, J.Trotter).
  11. 2nd & 1(Shotgun) K.Herbert left end to TB 44 for -1 yards (J.Parrish).
  12. 1st & 10(Shotgun) K.Herbert right guard to TB 43 for 9 yards (A.Anzalone; A.Winfield). TB-T.Smith was injured during the play.
  13. 1st & 10M.Penix pass incomplete short left to K.Herbert.PENALTY on TB-A.Robinson, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 33 - No Play.
  14. Q3 3:47C.McLaughlin kicks 61 yards from TB 35 to ATL 4. K.Herbert to ATL 33 for 29 yards (K.Knowles).
Q3 7:09Buccaneers 6 plays, 90 yards, 3:22 · from TB 10Touchdown
  1. 2nd & Goal(Shotgun) B.Irving right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: TB-T.Wirfs has returned to the game. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.
  2. 1st & Goal(Shotgun) B.Irving left end to ATL 4 for 2 yards (B.Dorlus; C.Snowden).
  3. 2nd & 9K.Gainwell left end to ATL 6 for 28 yards (K.Daniels; M.Smith).
  4. 1st & 10(Shotgun) K.Gainwell left end to ATL 34 for 1 yard (H.Perkins). TB-T.Wirfs was injured during the play.
  5. 2nd & 1(Shotgun) B.Irving left end to ATL 35 for 46 yards (C.Henderson).
  6. 1st & 10B.Irving left end to TB 19 for 9 yards (X.Watts).
Q3 9:08Falcons 3 plays, 6 yards, 1:59 · from ATL 30Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 07:09.
  2. 4th & 4J.Bailey punts 54 yards to TB 10, Center-L.McCullough. T.Johnson to TB 10 for no gain (M.Ford).
  3. 3rd & 7(Shotgun) M.Penix pass short right to K.Herbert to ATL 36 for 3 yards (A.Anzalone).
  4. 2nd & 9(No Huddle) Bi.Robinson up the middle to ATL 33 for 2 yards (A.Robinson; E.Simmons).
  5. 1st & 10(Shotgun) Bi.Robinson left guard to ATL 31 for 1 yard (A.Winfield).
Q3 11:17Buccaneers 3 plays, 1 yard, 2:09 · from TB 45Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 09:08.
  2. 4th & 9R.Dixon punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-E.Deckers, Touchback.PENALTY on TB-K.Kieft, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 20.
  3. 3rd & 7(Shotgun) B.Mayfield sacked at TB 46 for -2 yards (H.Perkins).
  4. 2nd & 7(Shotgun) B.Irving right tackle to TB 48 for no gain (H.Perkins; Z.Harrison).
  5. 1st & 10(Shotgun) B.Mayfield scrambles right end pushed ob at TB 48 for 3 yards (C.Snowden).
Q3 13:21Falcons 3 plays, 9 yards, 2:04 · from ATL 7Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 11:17.
  2. 4th & 1J.Bailey punts 39 yards to TB 45, Center-L.McCullough, fair catch by T.Johnson.
  3. 3rd & 2(Shotgun) M.Penix pass short left to K.Pitts to ATL 16 for 1 yard (T.Smith).
  4. 2nd & 10Bi.Robinson right end to ATL 15 for 8 yards (A.Winfield).
  5. 1st & 10Bi.Robinson up the middle to ATL 7 for no gain (C.Kancey).
Q3 15:00Buccaneers 3 plays, 5 yards, 1:39 · from TB 29Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 13:21.
  2. 4th & 5R.Dixon punts 59 yards to ATL 7, Center-E.Deckers, out of bounds.
  3. 3rd & 5(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to K.Gainwell.
  4. 2nd & 8(Shotgun) B.Irving left guard to TB 34 for 3 yards (H.Perkins).
  5. 1st & 10(Shotgun) B.Irving left tackle to TB 31 for 2 yards (L.London; K.Daniels).
  6. Q3 15:00N.Folk kicks 56 yards from ATL 35 to TB 9. S.Tucker to TB 29 for 20 yards (N.Muse).
Q2 0:34Falcons 1 play, -3 yards, 0:34 · from ATL 17End of Half
  1. Q2 0:00END QUARTER 2
  2. 1st & 10M.Penix FUMBLES (Aborted) at ATL 15, and recovers at ATL 14.
Q2 1:26Buccaneers 4 plays, 18 yards, 0:52 · from TB 36Punt
  1. 4th & 5R.Dixon punts 29 yards to ATL 17, Center-E.Deckers, out of bounds.
  2. 4th & 5Timeout #3 by ATL at 00:41.
  3. 3rd & 6(Shotgun) K.Gainwell right guard to ATL 46 for 1 yard (L.London; J.Woods).
  4. 3rd & 5Timeout #2 by ATL at 00:46.
  5. 2nd & 8(Shotgun) B.Irving left guard to ATL 47 for 2 yards (M.Smith; K.Daniels).
  6. 2nd & 8Timeout #1 by ATL at 00:51.
  7. 1st & 10(Shotgun) B.Irving right end to ATL 49 for 2 yards (C.Henderson).
  8. 1st & 10(Shotgun) B.Irving left end to TB 49 for 13 yards (C.Thomas; X.Watts).
Q2 4:04Falcons 6 plays, 19 yards, 2:38 · from ATL 45Downs
  1. 4th & 1K.Hinton reported in as eligible. Bi.Robinson left guard to TB 36 for no gain (S.Dennis; A.Nelson).
  2. 4th & 2Official Timeout at 01:40.
  3. 3rd & 7Bi.Robinson left end to TB 34 for 8 yards (A.Anzalone; T.Smith).The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED.Bi.Robinson left end to TB 36 for 6 yards (A.Anzalone; T.Smith). 10-second runoff.
  4. 2nd & 7C.Levin reported in as eligible. M.Penix pass incomplete short left to C.Woerner.
  5. 2nd & 8Two-Minute Warning
  6. 1st & 10K.Herbert left tackle to TB 42 for 3 yards (S.Dennis; A.Nelson).
  7. 2nd & 10Bi.Robinson left tackle to TB 45 for 10 yards (J.Trotter; J.Parrish).
  8. 1st & 10C.Levin reported in as eligible. Bi.Robinson left end to ATL 45 for no gain (A.Anzalone).
  9. Q2 4:04C.McLaughlin kicks 57 yards from TB 35 to ATL 8. O.Zaccheaus to ATL 45 for 37 yards (S.Dennis).
Q2 12:33Buccaneers 13 plays, 60 yards, 8:29 · from TB 17Field Goal
  1. Q2 4:04Official Timeout at 04:04.
  2. 4th & 5C.McLaughlin 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.
  3. 3rd & 9(Shotgun) K.Gainwell right end to ATL 23 for 4 yards (J.Bates).
  4. 2nd & 14(Shotgun) B.Mayfield to ATL 38 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at ATL 42. B.Mayfield ran ob at ATL 27 for 15 yards (M.Smith).
  5. 2nd & 9(Shotgun) PENALTY on TB-L.Goedeke, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 27 - No Play.
  6. 1st & 10(Shotgun) K.Gainwell up the middle to ATL 27 for 1 yard (K.Daniels; H.Perkins).
  7. 1st & 10Timeout #1 by TB at 06:22.
  8. 1st & 10(Shotgun) K.Gainwell left tackle to ATL 28 for 20 yards (A.Terrell).
  9. 3rd & 1K.Gainwell left guard to ATL 48 for 1 yard (M.Smith; X.Watts).
  10. 2nd & 3(Shotgun) B.Irving left guard to ATL 49 for 2 yards (Z.Harrison).
  11. 1st & 10(Shotgun) B.Irving left tackle to TB 49 for 7 yards (J.Bates).
  12. 3rd & 1(No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Irving right guard to TB 42 for 5 yards (S.Brown; C.Henderson).
  13. 2nd & 5(Shotgun) B.Irving left end to TB 37 for 4 yards (K.Daniels; J.Woods).
  14. 1st & 10(Shotgun) B.Irving left end to TB 33 for 5 yards (K.Daniels).
  15. 2nd & 6(Shotgun) B.Mayfield up the middle to TB 28 for 7 yards (J.Bates).
  16. 1st & 10(Shotgun) B.Irving right end to TB 21 for 4 yards (H.Perkins).
Q2 14:54Falcons 5 plays, 30 yards, 2:21 · from ATL 38Interception
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 12:33.
  2. 4th & 6(Shotgun) M.Penix pass short middle intended for D.London INTERCEPTED by J.Parrish at TB 17. J.Parrish to TB 17 for no gain (D.London).
  3. 3rd & 7K.Herbert up the middle to TB 32 for 1 yard (V.Vea).
  4. 2nd & 7M.Penix pass incomplete short left to J.Dotson (K.Scott).
  5. 1st & 10Bi.Robinson right tackle to TB 33 for 3 yards (J.Trotter; A.Robinson).
  6. 1st & 10C.Levin reported in as eligible. Bi.Robinson left guard pushed ob at TB 36 for 26 yards (J.Parrish).
Q1 2:16Buccaneers 4 plays, 14 yards, 2:22 · from TB 13Punt
  1. 4th & 8R.Dixon punts 35 yards to ATL 38, Center-E.Deckers, fair catch by J.Dotson.
  2. Q1 0:00END QUARTER 1
  3. 3rd & 8(Shotgun) K.Gainwell right guard to TB 27 for no gain (X.Watts).
  4. 2nd & 9(Shotgun) B.Irving left guard to TB 27 for 1 yard (K.Daniels).
  5. 1st & 10B.Mayfield to TB 24 for -1 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at TB 24. B.Mayfield to TB 22 for -2 yards. Handoff to B.Irving to TB 26 for 4 yards (C.Thomas).
  6. 1st & 10B.Irving right guard to TB 25 for 12 yards (K.Daniels).
Q1 4:02Falcons 3 plays, 8 yards, 1:46 · from ATL 24Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 02:16.
  2. 4th & 2J.Bailey punts 55 yards to TB 13, Center-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-S.Brown.
  3. 3rd & 2M.Penix pass incomplete deep left to K.Pitts. ** Injury Update: ATL-D.London has returned to the game.
  4. 2nd & 6Bi.Robinson right tackle to ATL 32 for 4 yards (E.Roberts).
  5. 1st & 10Bi.Robinson left tackle to ATL 28 for 4 yards (E.Roberts).
  6. Q1 4:02C.McLaughlin kicks 58 yards from TB 35 to ATL 7. Z.Branch to ATL 24 for 17 yards (K.Gainwell).
Q1 5:36Buccaneers 4 plays, 3 yards, 1:34 · from ATL 19Field Goal
  1. Q1 4:02Official Timeout at 04:02.
  2. 4th & 7C.McLaughlin 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.
  3. 3rd & 7(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to C.Godwin.
  4. 2nd & 11(Shotgun) B.Irving up the middle to ATL 16 for 4 yards (S.Ebukam).
  5. 1st & 10B.Irving right tackle to ATL 20 for -1 yards (B.Dorlus).
Q1 6:32Falcons 3 plays, 0 yards, 0:56 · from ATL 20Interception
  1. 3rd & 10(Shotgun) M.Penix pass short middle intended for J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by A.Anzalone at ATL 31. A.Anzalone to ATL 19 for 12 yards (Z.Branch).
  2. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) M.Penix pass incomplete short right to Bi.Robinson.
  3. 1st & 15Bi.Robinson right guard to ATL 20 for 5 yards (A.Anzalone; C.Kancey).
  4. 1st & 10PENALTY on ATL-Bi.Robinson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 20 - No Play.
Q1 7:26Buccaneers 2 plays, 17 yards, 0:54 · from ATL 18Fumble
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 06:32.
  2. 2nd & 7B.Mayfield to ATL 17 for -2 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at ATL 18. B.Mayfield to ATL 16 for 2 yards. Lateral to B.Irving to ATL 1 for 15 yards (J.Bates). FUMBLES (J.Bates), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback.
  3. 1st & 10B.Irving right guard to ATL 15 for 3 yards (C.Henderson; Z.Harrison).
Q1 7:43Falcons 1 play, 0 yards, 0:17 · from ATL 34Interception
  1. 1st & 10M.Penix pass short right intended for D.London INTERCEPTED by A.Anzalone at ATL 41. A.Anzalone to ATL 33 for 8 yards (D.London).PENALTY on ATL-D.London, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 33.
  2. Q1 7:43C.McLaughlin kicks 60 yards from TB 35 to ATL 5. Z.Branch to ATL 29 for 24 yards (M.Killebrew; J.Trotter).PENALTY on TB-K.Scott, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 29.
Q1 9:55Buccaneers 5 plays, 29 yards, 2:12 · from TB 43Field Goal
  1. Q1 7:43Official Timeout at 07:43.
  2. 4th & 5C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.
  3. 3rd & 5(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to T.Hurst (M.Hughes).
  4. 2nd & 9(Shotgun) B.Irving left end pushed ob at ATL 28 for 4 yards (K.Daniels).
  5. 1st & 10B.Irving left guard to ATL 32 for 1 yard (G.Dexter; K.Daniels).
  6. 1st & 10B.Irving up the middle to ATL 33 for 24 yards (J.Bates; S.Ebukam).
Q1 15:00Falcons 10 plays, 35 yards, 5:05 · from ATL 30Missed FG
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 09:55.
  2. 4th & 8N.Folk 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.
  3. 3rd & 8(Shotgun) M.Penix pass incomplete short left to D.London.
  4. 2nd & 8Bi.Robinson left tackle to TB 35 for no gain (R.Nunez-Roches; J.Parrish).
  5. 1st & 10Bi.Robinson left tackle to TB 35 for 2 yards (E.Roberts; A.Winfield).
  6. 4th & 1M.Penix up the middle to TB 37 for 2 yards (C.Kancey).
  7. 3rd & 2(Shotgun) Bi.Robinson left guard to TB 39 for 1 yard (J.Parrish; V.Vea).
  8. 2nd & 7(Shotgun) M.Penix pass short middle to K.Pitts to TB 40 for 5 yards (A.Winfield).
  9. 1st & 10C.Levin reported in as eligible. Bi.Robinson left tackle to TB 45 for 3 yards (J.Trotter).
  10. 2nd & 7M.Penix pass short right to J.Dotson pushed ob at TB 48 for 19 yards (Z.McCollum).
  11. 1st & 10Bi.Robinson right guard to ATL 33 for 3 yards (J.Trotter).
  12. Q1 15:00C.McLaughlin kicks 63 yards from TB 35 to ATL 2. Z.Branch to ATL 30 for 28 yards (S.Dennis).

Plays via ESPN. The full play-by-play, with EPA and our win probability, lands with the overnight data refresh.

Closing spread

TB -2.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Buccaneers

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.038EPA / play-0.081
  • 44.5%Success rate40.9%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback-0.130
  • +0.001EPA / rush-0.011
  • 9.0%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -4.68CPOE-2.76
  • 39.3%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 61.9%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.86
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 25–25 since 1999

Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL
2022 · W5ATL @ TB15–21TB

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.5%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.40