2026 · Week 8 · Division
Scheduled
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+2.7est.
TB perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Falconsedge mapBuccaneers
- -0.358EPA / play-0.081
- 36.7%Success rate51.8%
- -0.638EPA / dropback-0.168
- -0.113EPA / rush+0.118
- 10.0%Explosive rate5.4%
- -10.42CPOE+14.02
- 16.7%Third-down rate50.0%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 0.46Points / drive1.44
- 3.3%Turnover rate7.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.74