2023 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Desmond Ridder

16·13

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

TB -3

Total

37.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

TB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.089EPA / play+0.008
  • 41.5%Success rate40.5%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.171EPA / rush-0.166
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -3.52CPOE+0.25
  • 40.2%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 53.3%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 1.58Points / drive1.86
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 25–25 since 1999

Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL
2022 · W5ATL @ TB15–21TB
2021 · W13TB @ ATL30–17TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–TB
TBQ1 15:001129Turnover on downs0–0
ATLQ1 10:39858Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 6:48867Touchdown7–7
ATLQ1 3:2436Punt7–7
TBQ1 2:05417Punt7–7
ATLQ2 14:51762Field goal10–7
TBQ2 11:511571Field goal10–10
ATLQ2 5:141359Turnover10–10
TBQ2 0:1700End of half10–10
ATLQ3 15:0032Punt10–10
TBQ3 13:38623Turnover10–10
ATLQ3 11:38726Turnover10–10
TBQ3 8:0039Punt10–10
ATLQ3 5:59740Field goal13–10
TBQ3 2:04826Punt13–10
ATLQ4 12:371097Turnover13–10
TBQ4 6:30754Turnover13–10
ATLQ4 3:4139Punt13–10
TBQ4 2:361034Field goal13–13
ATLQ4 0:45442Field goal16–13

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Desmond Ridder19/2525000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Allgeier21592.80
Cordarrelle Patterson10565.60
Desmond Ridder6386.31
Bijan Robinson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London67540
Tyler Allgeier33530
Kyle Pitts35470
Scott Miller11460
Jonnu Smith33270
KhaDarel Hodge11190
Van Jefferson1250

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield27/4227511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White13342.60
Baker Mayfield33210.70
Ke'Shawn Vaughn471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans68821
Chris Godwin Jr.612660
Rachaad White66650
Cade Otton56430
Deven Thompkins33140
Trey Palmer1250
Ke'Shawn Vaughn0100
Rakim Jarrett0200
Payne Durham0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.76