2023 · Week 7 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play+0.008
- 41.5%Success rate40.5%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.166
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.6%
- -3.52CPOE+0.25
- 40.2%Third-down rate42.2%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 1.58Points / drive1.86
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 19/25 | 250 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 21 | 59 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 10 | 56 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Desmond Ridder | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Bijan Robinson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 6 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 1 | 46 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 27/42 | 275 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 13 | 34 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 6 | 8 | 82 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 6 | 12 | 66 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 6 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Trey Palmer | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rakim Jarrett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Payne Durham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.76