2025 · Week 15 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -6
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
TB perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.008EPA / play+0.006
- 44.5%Success rate43.3%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.064
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.087
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.4%
- -3.36CPOE-2.55
- 33.5%Third-down rate41.0%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.82Points / drive1.89
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 30/44 | 373 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 19 | 93 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 11 | 12 | 166 | 3 |
| Bijan Robinson | 8 | 11 | 82 | 0 |
| David Sills | 6 | 10 | 78 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 19/34 | 277 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 16 | 60 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 6 | 12 | 132 | 0 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 4 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Jalen McMillan | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 4 | 5 | 20 | 1 |
| Bucky Irving | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Devin Culp | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Tez Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.67