2025 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Kirk Cousins

29·28

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TB -6

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

TB perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.008EPA / play+0.006
  • 44.5%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.064
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.087
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -3.36CPOE-2.55
  • 33.5%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 62.2%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 1.82Points / drive1.89
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 25–25 since 1999

Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL
2022 · W5ATL @ TB15–21TB
2021 · W13TB @ ATL30–17TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–TB
TBQ1 15:00522Punt0–0
ATLQ1 12:33849Punt0–0
TBQ1 6:221278Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 1:381070Touchdown7–7
TBQ2 12:11511Punt7–7
ATLQ2 9:35638Punt7–7
TBQ2 6:29849Field goal7–10
ATLQ2 2:04465Touchdown14–10
TBQ2 0:38525Field goal14–13
ATLQ3 15:00423Punt14–13
TBQ3 11:361275Touchdown14–20
ATLQ3 6:22734Punt14–20
TBQ3 4:26640Punt14–20
ATLQ3 0:5329Turnover14–20
TBQ3 0:06515Touchdown14–28
ATLQ4 13:34865Touchdown20–28
TBQ4 9:37415Turnover20–28
ATLQ4 8:221073Touchdown26–28
TBQ4 3:3468Punt26–28
ATLQ4 1:49850Field goal29–28

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins30/4437330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson19934.91
Tyler Allgeier2189.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Pitts11121663
Bijan Robinson811820
David Sills610780
Darnell Mooney36350
Charlie Woerner22120

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield19/3427721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving16603.80
Rachaad White12020.00
Sean Tucker471.81
Baker Mayfield111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans6121320
Emeka Egbuka47640
Jalen McMillan22380
Chris Godwin Jr.45201
Bucky Irving13110
Rachaad White1160
Devin Culp1161
Tez Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

3.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.15
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.67