2024 · Week 8 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
ATL -1.5
Total
47
Model margin
+4.2est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play+0.133
- 48.4%Success rate49.4%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.015EPA / rush+0.012
- 9.7%Explosive rate10.2%
- -0.01CPOE+3.56
- 39.1%Third-down rate50.8%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
- 2.10Points / drive2.71
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 23/29 | 276 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 5 | 91 | 2 |
| Darnell Mooney | 4 | 6 | 86 | 1 |
| Bijan Robinson | 7 | 7 | 43 | 1 |
| Drake London | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 37/50 | 330 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jalen McMillan | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Otton | 9 | 10 | 81 | 2 |
| Rakim Jarrett | 3 | 3 | 58 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 7 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 5 | 6 | 38 | 1 |
| Jalen McMillan | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Trey Palmer | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Ryan Miller | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.4%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.61
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.24