2024 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Kirk Cousins

31·26

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

ATL -1.5

Total

47

Model margin

+4.2est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.041EPA / play+0.133
  • 48.4%Success rate49.4%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback+0.211
  • -0.015EPA / rush+0.012
  • 9.7%Explosive rate10.2%
  • -0.01CPOE+3.56
  • 39.1%Third-down rate50.8%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
  • 2.10Points / drive2.71
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 25–25 since 1999

Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL
2022 · W5ATL @ TB15–21TB
2021 · W13TB @ ATL30–17TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–TB
TBQ1 15:00213Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 14:11443Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 12:521570Touchdown7–7
ATLQ1 4:22430Punt7–7
TBQ1 2:3712102Touchdown7–14
ATLQ2 10:28770Touchdown14–14
TBQ2 7:19418Punt14–14
ATLQ2 5:28661Touchdown21–14
TBQ2 2:09636Field goal21–17
ATLQ2 1:04844Field goal24–17
TBQ2 0:0100End of half24–17
ATLQ3 15:00412Punt24–17
TBQ3 12:22634Turnover24–17
ATLQ3 9:11832Punt24–17
TBQ3 4:3045Turnover on downs24–17
ATLQ3 3:05746Touchdown31–17
TBQ3 0:14546Turnover31–17
ATLQ4 12:542-1Safety31–19
TBQ4 12:041278Touchdown31–26
ATLQ4 6:521257Missed field goal31–26
TBQ4 1:01631End of half31–26

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins23/2927640

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson13634.80
Tyler Allgeier12332.80
Ray-Ray McCloud11717.00
Kirk Cousins3165.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Pitts45912
Darnell Mooney46861
Bijan Robinson77431
Drake London46340
Charlie Woerner11130
Ray-Ray McCloud3390

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield37/5033032

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving9444.90
Rachaad White6294.80
Jalen McMillan11717.00
Baker Mayfield3113.70
Sean Tucker231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cade Otton910812
Rakim Jarrett33580
Bucky Irving77400
Rachaad White56381
Jalen McMillan47350
Trey Palmer22290
Ryan Miller35190
Sterling Shepard35180
Sean Tucker11120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.4%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.61
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.24