2024 · Week 5 · Division
Final / OT
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf
Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
-0.9est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.133EPA / play+0.041
- 49.4%Success rate48.4%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.083
- +0.012EPA / rush-0.015
- 10.2%Explosive rate9.7%
- +3.56CPOE-0.01
- 50.8%Third-down rate39.1%
- 71.2%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 2.71Points / drive2.10
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 19/24 | 180 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 10 | 72 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 5 | 7 | 62 | 2 |
| Cade Otton | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Rachaad White | 3 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 42/58 | 509 | 4 | 1 |
| Darnell Mooney | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 12 | 61 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 12 | 13 | 154 | 1 |
| Darnell Mooney | 9 | 16 | 105 | 2 |
| Kyle Pitts | 7 | 8 | 88 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 2 | 2 | 67 | 1 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 6 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.6%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.61
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.91