2024 · Week 5 · Division

Final / OT

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

30·36

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Kirk Cousins

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

Total

44

Model margin

-0.9est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.133EPA / play+0.041
  • 49.4%Success rate48.4%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback+0.083
  • +0.012EPA / rush-0.015
  • 10.2%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +3.56CPOE-0.01
  • 50.8%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 71.2%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 2.71Points / drive2.10
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 25–25 since 1999

Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL
2022 · W5ATL @ TB15–21TB
2021 · W13TB @ ATL30–17TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00770Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 11:54963Touchdown7–7
ATLQ1 7:36742Missed field goal7–7
TBQ1 3:30534Field goal10–7
ATLQ1 1:221275Touchdown10–14
TBQ2 11:58344Touchdown17–14
ATLQ2 10:17744Field goal17–17
TBQ2 6:17782Touchdown24–17
ATLQ2 1:56931Punt24–17
TBQ2 0:1200End of half24–17
TBQ3 15:0048Punt24–17
ATLQ3 12:101265Field goal24–20
TBQ3 6:21841Field goal27–20
ATLQ3 1:17870Touchdown27–27
TBQ4 13:18535Field goal30–27
ATLQ4 10:23937Missed field goal30–27
TBQ4 6:29731Turnover30–27
ATLQ4 2:504-5Turnover30–27
TBQ4 1:444-4Punt30–27
ATLQ4 1:14651Field goal30–30
ATLOT470Touchdown30–36

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield19/2418030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White10727.20
Bucky Irving9444.90
Baker Mayfield6427.00
Chris Godwin Jr.122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.56640
Mike Evans57622
Cade Otton34440
Bucky Irving22120
Sterling Shepard1241
Rachaad White33-60

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins42/5850941
Darnell Mooney0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson12615.10
Tyler Allgeier6122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London12131541
Darnell Mooney9161052
Kyle Pitts78880
KhaDarel Hodge22671
Ray-Ray McCloud69660
Bijan Robinson33160
Tyler Allgeier33130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.6%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.61
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.91