1999 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tony Banks

34·31

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jeff Blake

Cinergy Field · outdoors · astroturf · 66°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BAL -5

Total

34.5

Model margin

+0.2est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBengals
  • -0.091EPA / play-0.068
  • 36.5%Success rate39.4%
  • -0.084EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.132
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.1%
  • 28.4%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 40.6%Red-zone TD rate43.1%
  • 1.00Points / drive1.24
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.151EPA / play allowed+0.041

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. CIN are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CIN
CINQ1 15:00514Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:1160Turnover0–0
CINQ1 9:36625Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 7:1234Punt0–7
CINQ1 6:13479Touchdown0–14
BALQ1 4:4039Punt0–14
CINQ1 2:5430Punt0–14
BALQ1 1:50622Field goal3–14
CINQ2 13:3500Punt3–14
BALQ2 13:3037Punt3–14
CINQ2 11:2834Punt3–14
BALQ2 10:283-9Punt3–14
CINQ2 9:01416Punt3–14
BALQ2 6:221272Touchdown10–14
CINQ2 0:54523End of half10–14
BALQ3 15:008-1Turnover10–14
CINQ3 12:22522Missed field goal10–14
BALQ3 10:30575Touchdown17–14
CINQ3 8:1831Turnover17–14
BALQ3 6:32417Touchdown24–14
CINQ3 5:33211Opp touchdown31–14
BALQ3 4:3800Opp touchdown31–14
CINQ3 4:38529Touchdown31–21
BALQ3 2:43621Punt31–21
CINQ4 14:48738Punt31–21
BALQ4 11:2138Opp touchdown31–28
CINQ4 9:0900Opp touchdown31–28
BALQ4 9:09614Punt31–28
CINQ4 5:281455Field goal31–31
BALQ4 1:501142Field goal34–31

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Banks24/4027421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Errict Rhett23361.61
Tony Banks2178.50
Jermaine Lewis133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Billy Davis22860
Pat Johnson611731
Chuck Evans34320
Qadry Ismail36260
Greg DeLong44231
Errict Rhett35220
Jermaine Lewis1350
Aaron Pierce1140
A.J. Ofodile1230

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Blake20/3924632

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Dillon15744.90
Jeff Blake5275.40
Michael Basnight100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnay Scott58672
Carl Pickens25541
Willie Jackson45470
Michael Basnight11190
Tony McGee24180
Corey Dillon13150
Marco Battaglia0100
Craig Yeast0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.84%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.6%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.37
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.20