Closing spread
BAL -5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play-0.068
- 36.5%Success rate39.4%
- -0.084EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.132
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.1%
- 28.4%Third-down rate39.2%
- 40.6%Red-zone TD rate43.1%
- 1.00Points / drive1.24
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.151EPA / play allowed+0.041
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 24/40 | 274 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errict Rhett | 23 | 36 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Tony Banks | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Davis | 2 | 2 | 86 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 6 | 11 | 73 | 1 |
| Chuck Evans | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Greg DeLong | 4 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Errict Rhett | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Aaron Pierce | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| A.J. Ofodile | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 20/39 | 246 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 15 | 74 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Michael Basnight | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnay Scott | 5 | 8 | 67 | 2 |
| Carl Pickens | 2 | 5 | 54 | 1 |
| Willie Jackson | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Michael Basnight | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Craig Yeast | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.20