2022 · WC · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tyler Huntley

17·24

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 30°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CIN -7.5

Total

40

Model margin

+5.1est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBengals
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.081
  • 45.3%Success rate47.8%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback+0.153
  • +0.034EPA / rush-0.064
  • 10.1%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -1.40CPOE+2.74
  • 42.2%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 46.9%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.27
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. CIN are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · W18BAL @ CIN16–27CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CIN
CINQ1 15:001354Field goal0–3
BALQ1 8:22525Turnover0–3
CINQ1 6:031160Touchdown0–9
BALQ2 14:561872Touchdown7–9
CINQ2 4:53614Turnover7–9
BALQ2 2:38840Field goal10–9
CINQ2 0:0700End of half10–9
BALQ3 15:00421Punt10–9
CINQ3 12:101388Touchdown10–17
BALQ3 5:02581Touchdown17–17
CINQ3 2:1338Punt17–17
BALQ3 0:54980Opp touchdown17–24
BALQ4 11:3931Punt17–24
CINQ4 9:586-2Punt17–24
BALQ4 7:18520Punt17–24
CINQ4 4:34413Punt17–24
BALQ4 3:141224Turnover on downs17–24

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Huntley17/2922621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins13624.80
Tyler Huntley9546.00
Gus Edwards12393.30
Mark Andrews100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews510730
Demarcus Robinson23491
J.K. Dobbins45431
Josh Oliver22260
Gus Edwards11130
Sammy Watkins13120
Justice Hill22100
Patrick Ricard0200

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow23/3220910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon11393.50
Joe Burrow591.81
Samaje Perine231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase912841
Hayden Hurst46450
Tee Higgins46370
Tyler Boyd33260
Joe Mixon34170
Samaje Perine0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.7%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.88
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.11