Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play+0.012
- 44.6%Success rate46.4%
- +0.036EPA / dropback+0.012
- +0.038EPA / rush+0.012
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.4%
- +2.86CPOE+1.28
- 41.4%Third-down rate44.3%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
- 2.30Points / drive1.93
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 8/12 | 150 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 11 | 100 | 9.1 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 8 | 66 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 3 | 5 | 68 | 1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 |
| Rasheen Ali | 2 | 2 | 32 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 25/39 | 225 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 10 | 16 | 132 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 7 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Mitchell Tinsley | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.14
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.26
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.83