2025 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

32·14

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

BAL -7

Total

52.5

Model margin

-1.4est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

4.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapRavens
  • +0.012EPA / play+0.037
  • 46.4%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.012EPA / dropback+0.036
  • +0.012EPA / rush+0.038
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +1.28CPOE+2.86
  • 44.3%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 69.0%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 1.93Points / drive2.30
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BAL are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN
2022 · W18BAL @ CIN16–27CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BAL
CINQ1 15:001046Field goal3–0
BALQ1 9:39769Touchdown3–7
CINQ1 6:3332Punt3–7
BALQ1 4:573-8Turnover3–7
CINQ1 3:2940Turnover on downs3–7
BALQ1 2:3230Punt3–7
CINQ1 1:331034Field goal6–7
BALQ2 11:24768Turnover6–7
CINQ2 8:221189Field goal9–7
BALQ2 2:36631Punt9–7
CINQ2 1:35631Punt9–7
BALQ2 0:361-5Turnover9–7
CINQ2 0:2834Field goal12–7
BALQ2 0:1000End of half12–7
BALQ3 15:0036Punt12–7
CINQ3 12:481144Touchdown19–7
BALQ3 7:22768Touchdown19–14
CINQ3 3:59868Touchdown26–14
BALQ3 0:15760Turnover26–14
CINQ4 12:54619Field goal29–14
BALQ4 9:25714Turnover on downs29–14
CINQ4 7:56627Turnover29–14
BALQ4 5:01527Turnover29–14
CINQ4 4:12518Field goal32–14
BALQ4 1:06317End of half32–14

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow24/4626120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown15785.20
Samaje Perine14392.80
Joe Burrow382.70
Drew Sample133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase7141100
Chase Brown77350
Andrei Iosivas12291
Mitchell Tinsley29220
Mike Gesicki24190
Samaje Perine22150
Tanner Hudson12141
Drew Sample12140
Noah Fant1230

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson17/3224601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry10606.01
Lamar Jackson6274.50
Keaton Mitchell2199.51
Rasheen Ali4174.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaiah Likely56950
Mark Andrews46470
Derrick Henry11440
DeAndre Hopkins23250
Charlie Kolar11170
Keaton Mitchell23120
Zay Flowers2760
Rashod Bateman0100
Devontez Walker0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

4.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.3%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.26
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.42