Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
52.5
Model margin
-1.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
4.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.012EPA / play+0.037
- 46.4%Success rate44.6%
- +0.012EPA / dropback+0.036
- +0.012EPA / rush+0.038
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.4%
- +1.28CPOE+2.86
- 44.3%Third-down rate41.4%
- 69.0%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.93Points / drive2.30
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 24/46 | 261 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 15 | 78 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 7 | 14 | 110 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 7 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 1 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| Mitchell Tinsley | 2 | 9 | 22 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 1 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 17/32 | 246 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 10 | 60 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 1 |
| Rasheen Ali | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | 5 | 6 | 95 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 44 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 2 | 7 | 6 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Devontez Walker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.3%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.14
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-4.26
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.42