Closing spread
BAL -6
Total
53
Model margin
+4.0est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.107EPA / play+0.199
- 48.0%Success rate49.4%
- +0.193EPA / dropback+0.328
- -0.081EPA / rush+0.053
- 7.3%Explosive rate12.0%
- +6.81CPOE+4.67
- 47.3%Third-down rate47.9%
- 69.7%Red-zone TD rate76.9%
- 2.50Points / drive2.80
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 34/56 | 428 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 11 | 17 | 264 | 3 |
| Chase Brown | 9 | 11 | 52 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 6 | 7 | 42 | 1 |
| Mike Gesicki | 4 | 9 | 30 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Jermaine Burton | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Cam Grandy | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 25/33 | 290 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 16 | 68 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tylan Wallace | 3 | 3 | 115 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 6 | 7 | 68 | 1 |
| Rashod Bateman | 6 | 8 | 54 | 1 |
| Zay Flowers | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.31
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.01