2024 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

34·35

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BAL -6

Total

53

Model margin

+4.0est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapRavens
  • +0.107EPA / play+0.199
  • 48.0%Success rate49.4%
  • +0.193EPA / dropback+0.328
  • -0.081EPA / rush+0.053
  • 7.3%Explosive rate12.0%
  • +6.81CPOE+4.67
  • 47.3%Third-down rate47.9%
  • 69.7%Red-zone TD rate76.9%
  • 2.50Points / drive2.80
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BAL are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN
2022 · W18BAL @ CIN16–27CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BAL
CINQ1 15:001369Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 9:2336Punt7–0
CINQ1 7:541346Turnover on downs7–0
BALQ1 2:561059Touchdown7–7
CINQ2 13:0439Punt7–7
BALQ2 11:2839Punt7–7
CINQ2 9:1474Punt7–7
BALQ2 5:3235Punt7–7
CINQ2 4:021168Touchdown14–7
BALQ2 0:30423End of half14–7
BALQ3 15:00412Punt20–7
CINQ3 13:21167Touchdown21–7
BALQ3 13:09713Punt21–7
CINQ3 8:58522Turnover21–7
BALQ3 6:58531Touchdown21–14
CINQ3 4:12841Punt21–14
BALQ4 14:44392Touchdown21–20
CINQ4 13:30836Turnover on downs21–20
BALQ4 9:24765Touchdown21–28
CINQ4 5:50170Touchdown28–28
BALQ4 5:371275Touchdown28–35
CINQ4 1:491138Touchdown34–35
BALQ4 0:3800End of half34–35

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow34/5642840

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown13423.21
Joe Burrow263.00
Tanner Hudson111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase11172643
Chase Brown911520
Tanner Hudson67421
Mike Gesicki49300
Andrei Iosivas24290
Jermaine Burton15110
Cam Grandy1100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson25/3329040

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry16684.31
Lamar Jackson7334.70
Justice Hill2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tylan Wallace331151
Mark Andrews67681
Rashod Bateman68541
Zay Flowers46340
Nelson Agholor1261
Diontae Johnson1260
Charlie Kolar1140
Derrick Henry1130
Justice Hill2200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

3.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.8%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.31
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.01