2023 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

27·24

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paycor Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

CIN -3.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

-0.7est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBengals
  • +0.069EPA / play+0.001
  • 47.3%Success rate44.4%
  • +0.111EPA / dropback+0.050
  • +0.009EPA / rush-0.103
  • 9.8%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +2.73CPOE+2.09
  • 42.3%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 64.0%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.91
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. CIN are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN
2022 · W18BAL @ CIN16–27CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CIN
BALQ1 15:001470Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 7:12412Punt7–0
BALQ1 5:16626Missed field goal7–0
CINQ1 3:1832Punt7–0
BALQ1 1:12612Opp touchdown7–7
BALQ2 13:14949Field goal10–7
CINQ2 9:151249Field goal10–10
BALQ2 3:011368Field goal13–10
CINQ3 15:00963Turnover13–10
BALQ3 10:39462Touchdown20–10
CINQ3 8:391371Touchdown20–17
BALQ3 2:341385Touchdown27–17
CINQ4 11:3835Punt27–17
BALQ4 9:36311Punt27–17
CINQ4 7:401680Touchdown27–24
BALQ4 3:28633End of half27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson24/3323720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards10626.21
Lamar Jackson12544.50
Justice Hill11413.70
Devin Duvernay3155.00
Zay Flowers166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nelson Agholor56631
Zay Flowers45620
Mark Andrews58451
Odell Beckham Jr.34290
Rashod Bateman33180
Justice Hill33120
Isaiah Likely1180
Devin Duvernay0300

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow27/4122221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon13594.50
Joe Burrow155.00
Chase Brown122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins812892
Tyler Boyd68520
Joe Mixon45360
Ja'Marr Chase58310
Irv Smith24100
Trayveon Williams2240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.2%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.68