Closing spread
CIN -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play+0.001
- 47.3%Success rate44.4%
- +0.111EPA / dropback+0.050
- +0.009EPA / rush-0.103
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.8%
- +2.73CPOE+2.09
- 42.3%Third-down rate38.3%
- 64.0%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 2.25Points / drive1.91
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 24/33 | 237 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 10 | 62 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 5 | 6 | 63 | 1 |
| Zay Flowers | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 5 | 8 | 45 | 1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 27/41 | 222 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 13 | 59 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 8 | 12 | 89 | 2 |
| Tyler Boyd | 6 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 5 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.2%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.38
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.68